Sha Tin · 2026-03-22 · 08:05
THE BMW HONG KONG DERBY 2026
Race 7
Race 7 ("THE BMW HONG KONG DERBY 2026") at Sha Tin on 2026-03-22 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INVINCIBLE IBIS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by M Newnham, won, with NUMBERS second and STORMY GROVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite LITTLE PARADISE finished 9th.
Track detail
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE IBIS Closed strongly CP- 1:59.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 3 | 5.5 | — |
| 2 | 2 | NUMBERS Led early XB K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 13 | 5.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | STORMY GROVE Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 7 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | PATCH OF COSMO Closed strongly B/TT D B McMonagle · K L Man | D B McMonagle | K L Man | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 13 | SERAPH GABRIEL CP-/XB/TT Z Purton · D Eustace | Z Purton | D Eustace | 12 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | POPE CODY Closed strongly TT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 9 | 49.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | TOP DRAGON TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 1 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | JUNEAU PRIDE H2 M L Yeung · J Size | M L Yeung | J Size | 5 | 39.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | LITTLE PARADISE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 10 | 3.8 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | DAZZLING FIT Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 14 | 37.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | REGAL GEM H A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 75.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | SAGACIOUS LIFE TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 2 | 30.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | BEAUTY BOLT TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 11 | 29.0 | 22-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | EMBLAZON TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 8 | 23.0 | 48-1/2 |
| — | 2 | WINDLORD CP-/TT · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
| — | 14 | CIRCUIT GRAND SLAM Closed strongly TT · K L Man | — | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LITTLE PARADISE | 18.3% | 5.46 | 9 |
| 2 | 8 | EMBLAZON | 15.9% | 6.28 | 14 |
| 3 | 5 | INVINCIBLE IBIS | 14.2% | 7.03 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | NUMBERS | 12.0% | 8.32 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | STORMY GROVE | 8.2% | 12.24 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | TOP DRAGON | 6.7% | 15.00 | 7 |
| 7 | 13 | SERAPH GABRIEL | 4.4% | 22.87 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | SAGACIOUS LIFE | 3.7% | 26.85 | 12 |
| 9 | 11 | JUNEAU PRIDE | 3.3% | 30.21 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | PATCH OF COSMO | 3.2% | 31.63 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | BEAUTY BOLT | 2.9% | 34.70 | 13 |
| 12 | 10 | REGAL GEM | 2.7% | 37.20 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | DAZZLING FIT | 2.4% | 41.31 | 10 |
| 14 | 14 | POPE CODY | 2.1% | 47.67 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 55.5
PLACE
2 18
3 22.5
5 19
QUINELLA
2,5 159.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 63.5
2,5 60
3,5 62
FORECAST
5,2 349
TIERCE
5,2,3 1,666
TRIO
2,3,5 243
FIRST 4
2,3,5,6 511
QUARTET
5,2,3,6 12,434
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
4/2 10.5
4/5 95.5