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Sha Tin · 2026-03-22 · 07:00

FAY FAY HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 ("FAY FAY HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-03-22 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AEROINVINCIBLE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won, with EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS second and JOLLY BRILLIANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite ABSOLUTE HONOUR finished 4th.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #14 CHILL PARTNERS — Code 96 #14 CHILL PARTNERS — Jockey Change #14 CHILL PARTNERS — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:21.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 AEROINVINCIBLE Closed strongly H/TT 1:21.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 6.3
2 5 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · B Crawford 1 16.0 SH
3 11 JOLLY BRILLIANT Closed strongly B D B McMonagle · P F Yiu 4 10.0 N
4 12 ABSOLUTE HONOUR B-/TT- Z Purton · F C Lor 3 4.3 1/2
5 7 GALLANT DESIGN Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 9 5.1 1-1/2
6 2 ALL ROUND WINNER Closed strongly B H Bentley · D A Hayes 6 9.2 1-1/2
7 9 REGENCY DREAM Closed strongly J Orman · D Eustace 5 54.0 2
8 13 INCREDIBLE MOMENT Led early R Kingscote · M Newnham 2 14.0 3
9 3 CONRAD PATCH TT H Bowman · W K Mo 11 9.2 3-1/2
10 10 GORGEOUS VICTORY TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 10 41.0 4-1/2
11 6 STAR SATYR Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 37.0 4-1/2
12 4 REZEKI B P N Wong · D J Hall 12 22.0 5-1/2
13 8 LUCKY GIBS K Teetan · K L Man 7 149.0 6-3/4
14 14 CHILL PARTNERS CP C L Chau · K W Lui 13 16.0 7-1/4
0 BETTER AND BETTER H/P/TT · F C Lor
14 LUCK SMILES TT M L Yeung · W Y So 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AEROINVINCIBLE2. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+0.1L3. JOLLY BRILLIANT+0.05L4. ABSOLUTE HONOUR+0.5L5. GALLANT DESIGN+1.5L6. ALL ROUND WINNER+1.5L7. REGENCY DREAM+2L8. INCREDIBLE MOMENT+3L9. CONRAD PATCH+3.5L10. GORGEOUS VICTORY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick AEROINVINCIBLE (17.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AEROINVINCIBLE 17.3% 5.77 1
2 12 ABSOLUTE HONOUR 17.1% 5.85 4
3 5 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 9.6% 10.46 2
4 11 JOLLY BRILLIANT 8.8% 11.36 3
5 3 CONRAD PATCH 8.2% 12.24 9
6 14 CHILL PARTNERS 6.0% 16.71 14
7 4 REZEKI 5.4% 18.48 12
8 2 ALL ROUND WINNER 5.4% 18.52 6
9 7 GALLANT DESIGN 5.1% 19.44 5
10 13 INCREDIBLE MOMENT 4.7% 21.16 8
11 6 STAR SATYR 4.7% 21.48 11
12 9 REGENCY DREAM 3.5% 28.56 7
13 10 GORGEOUS VICTORY 2.7% 36.40 10
14 8 LUCKY GIBS 1.5% 67.77 13
AEROINVINCIBLE — wonABSOLUTE HONOUREIGHTY LIGHT YEARSJOLLY BRILLIANTCONRAD PATCHCHILL PARTNERSREZEKIALL ROUND WINNERGALLANT DESIGNINCREDIBLE MOMENTSTAR SATYRREGENCY DREAMGORGEOUS VICTORYLUCKY GIBS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 63

PLACE

1 22

5 45

11 30

QUINELLA

1,5 670.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 204

1,11 149

5,11 224

FORECAST

1,5 1,008

TIERCE

1,5,11 9,861

TRIO

1,5,11 1,470

FIRST 4

1,5,11,12 1,348

QUARTET

1,5,11,12 42,048

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/3/1 451

9/3/5 208

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 213

3/5 81.5