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Happy Valley · 2026-05-13 · 12:40

THE FRANCE GALOP CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 5 ("THE FRANCE GALOP CUP (HANDICAP)") at Happy Valley on 2026-05-13 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LIVEANDLETLIVE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won, with THE AUSPICIOUS second and ACE WAR third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #4 CHINA WIN — Code 92

Result

Official · 1:48.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 LIVEANDLETLIVE Wire to wire TT 1:48.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 1 2.6
2 6 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H A Badel · Y S Tsui 2 6.4 1-1/4
3 8 ACE WAR Closed strongly XB Z Purton · M Newnham 8 2.8 2-1/2
4 7 NOISY BOY Closed strongly P-/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 7 16.0 3-3/4
5 5 LE ZONDA TT E Brown · P C Ng 9 21.0 5
6 3 FLYING LUCK Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 10.0 6-1/4
7 9 SO YOU WILL B1/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 19.0 6-1/4
8 2 KEEFY B M F Poon · F C Lor 4 16.0 8-3/4
9 10 DRAGON ON SNOW XB-/CP1 R Kingscote · D Eustace 6 79.0 11
WV 4 CHINA WIN L Ferraris · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIVEANDLETLIVE2. THE AUSPICIOUS+1.25L3. ACE WAR+2.5L4. NOISY BOY+3.75L5. LE ZONDA+5L6. FLYING LUCK+6.25L7. SO YOU WILL+6.25L8. KEEFY+8.75L9. DRAGON ON SNOW+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick LIVEANDLETLIVE (32.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LIVEANDLETLIVE 32.8% 3.05 1
2 8 ACE WAR 32.0% 3.12 3
3 3 FLYING LUCK 7.7% 12.98 6
4 9 SO YOU WILL 7.7% 13.02 7
5 6 THE AUSPICIOUS 7.6% 13.17 2
6 2 KEEFY 4.3% 23.51 8
7 7 NOISY BOY 3.9% 25.83 4
8 5 LE ZONDA 3.2% 31.10 5
9 10 DRAGON ON SNOW 0.9% 110.67 9
LIVEANDLETLIVE — wonACE WARFLYING LUCKSO YOU WILLTHE AUSPICIOUSKEEFYNOISY BOYLE ZONDADRAGON ON SNOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 26.5

PLACE

1 11

6 18

8 12.5

QUINELLA

1,6 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 29.5

1,8 18.5

6,8 25.5

FORECAST

1,6 116

TIERCE

1,6,8 311

TRIO

1,6,8 43

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 147

QUARTET

1,6,8,7 2,044

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/4/1 1,396

7/4/6 490

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/1,6,8 22,232

4TH DOUBLE

4/1 657

4/6 234