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Happy Valley · 2026-06-03 · 12:10

MIDDLE GAP HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 ("MIDDLE GAP HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-06-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TAKE ACTION, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won, with EXCEED THE LIMIT second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite RUN RUN TIMING finished 12th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #5 TAKE ACTION — Jockey Change

Result

Official · 1:40.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly B 1:40.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 10 10.0
2 1 EXCEED THE LIMIT Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 5 18.0 N
3 9 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 12.0 N
4 3 FLYING FORTUNE TT E Brown · W K Mo 11 28.0 1/2
5 8 SAVVY WARRIOR XB/TT C Y Ho · D Eustace 3 6.7 1
6 6 DASHING MAURISON B H Bentley · D A Hayes 6 5.8 2
7 2 STAR MAC Closed strongly B2/TT J Orman · D J Hall 8 12.0 2-1/2
8 7 SMILING ONE B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 7 69.0 2-1/2
9 12 CONRAD THE GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 12 63.0 2-3/4
10 4 GAZELEY B/XB L Ferraris · K W Lui 9 85.0 3
11 11 KING GLORIOSO SR/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 2 10.0 5-1/2
12 10 RUN RUN TIMING Led early V Z Purton · P F Yiu 1 2.4 16-1/2
0 NOBLE PURSUIT B/TT · C Fownes
0 SUPERB BOY TT · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TAKE ACTION2. EXCEED THE LIMIT+0.05L3. CAN'T GO WONG+0.05L4. FLYING FORTUNE+0.5L5. SAVVY WARRIOR+1L6. DASHING MAURISON+2L7. STAR MAC+2.5L8. SMILING ONE+2.5L9. CONRAD THE GREAT+2.75L10. GAZELEY+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick RUN RUN TIMING (38.0%) finished 12th — the winner TAKE ACTION was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 RUN RUN TIMING 38.0% 2.63 12
2 6 DASHING MAURISON 15.2% 6.57 6
3 8 SAVVY WARRIOR 13.2% 7.59 5
4 9 CAN'T GO WONG 5.9% 16.87 3
5 2 STAR MAC 5.2% 19.23 7
6 5 TAKE ACTION 5.1% 19.65 1
7 11 KING GLORIOSO 4.1% 24.37 11
8 1 EXCEED THE LIMIT 3.9% 25.49 2
9 12 CONRAD THE GREAT 3.7% 27.35 9
10 3 FLYING FORTUNE 2.6% 37.75 4
11 4 GAZELEY 1.9% 53.97 10
12 7 SMILING ONE 1.2% 83.03 8
RUN RUN TIMINGDASHING MAURISONSAVVY WARRIORCAN'T GO WONGSTAR MACTAKE ACTION — wonKING GLORIOSOEXCEED THE LIMITCONRAD THE GREATFLYING FORTUNEGAZELEYSMILING ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 109

PLACE

1 43

5 25

9 34

QUINELLA

1,5 1,142

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 295.5

1,9 229.5

5,9 125.5

FORECAST

5,1 2,326

TIERCE

5,1,9 17,685

TRIO

1,5,9 3,239

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 10,666

QUARTET

5,1,9,3 215,491

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 305.5

7/5 610