沙田 · 2019-10-12
第 10場
2019-10-12沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C S Shum訓練的CRAIG'S STAR勝出，贏出1/2。ALCARI獲得亞軍；TRIUMPHANT HORSE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CRAIG'S STAR 後段發力 B 1.21.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 5 | 3.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | ALCARI 後段發力 B A Domeyer · P F Yiu | A Domeyer | P F Yiu | 1 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE 後段發力 B/H C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 3 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | PICKEN 後段發力 U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 7 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 14 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 8 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | FLYING VICTORY H/TT G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 6 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | GUY DRAGON 後段發力 XB/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 5.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | MY DARLING M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 9.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 262.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | HOME WIN 後段發力 B1 C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 13 | 164.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | FANTASTIC FABIO 早段領放 K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 12 | 86.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | CRUCIATUS H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 11 | 231.0 | 12 |
| — | 1 | SACRED IBIS B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CRAIG'S STAR | 30.1% | 3.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | GUY DRAGON | 22.3% | 4.48 | 8 |
| 3 | 14 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 10.4% | 9.66 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | ALCARI | 6.7% | 14.93 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | PICKEN | 5.6% | 17.76 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 4.8% | 20.97 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE | 4.6% | 21.70 | 3 |
| 8 | 13 | FLYING VICTORY | 4.6% | 21.75 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | MY DARLING | 3.5% | 28.19 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 3.3% | 30.04 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | HOME WIN | 2.1% | 46.97 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 1.1% | 88.99 | 10 |
| 13 | 12 | CRUCIATUS | 0.8% | 130.87 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 31
PLACE
3 22
6 14
8 43
QUINELLA
3,6 114
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 45
3,8 143
6,8 88.5
TIERCE
6,3,8 2,525
TRIO
3,6,8 666
FIRST 4
3,6,7,8 2,903
QUARTET
6,3,8,7 31,618
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18.5
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,7/3,8>1,6 381,910
9TH DOUBLE
7/1,6 131
7/3 60.5
SIX UP
9/7/7/11/7/1,6 96,099
9,11/4,7/7,8/3,11/3,7/1,3,6 8,570
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
11/7/1,6 250
11/7/3 190