沙田 · 2019-10-12
第 8場
2019-10-12沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、T P Yung訓練的BEAUTY DAY勝出，贏出1/2。VINCY獲得亞軍；CHAMPION SUPREME獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY 後段發力 B/H 1.33.87 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 13 | 2.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | VINCY 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 4.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | CHAMPION SUPREME 後段發力 B/TT R Bayliss · J Moore | R Bayliss | J Moore | 7 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | STIMULATION CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | BEAR AGAIN SR L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 6 | 90.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | DEFINING MOMENT 後段發力 B G van Niekerk · C Fownes | G van Niekerk | C Fownes | 3 | 7.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | UNICRON JEWELLERY B B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 9 | 75.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | GLORIOUS DRAGON 後段發力 XB A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 10 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | ASSIMILATE B/H/TT U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 14 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | JIMMU B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 62.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | EVER LAUGH 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 75.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P-/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 11 | 221.0 | 18-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | CHEERS VANQUISHER 早段領放 TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 5 | 269.0 | 23 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VINCY | 22.0% | 4.54 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY | 15.7% | 6.35 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 14.2% | 7.06 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | ASSIMILATE | 12.1% | 8.27 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | STIMULATION | 10.1% | 9.95 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | DEFINING MOMENT | 8.4% | 11.95 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | FLYING QUEST | 4.9% | 20.24 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | UNICRON JEWELLERY | 3.5% | 28.19 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 3.4% | 29.13 | 3 |
| 10 | 13 | EVER LAUGH | 2.1% | 47.03 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 1.0% | 96.85 | 13 |
| 12 | 10 | BEAR AGAIN | 0.9% | 112.56 | 5 |
| 13 | 5 | JIMMU | 0.9% | 114.78 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | CHEERS VANQUISHER | 0.7% | 138.63 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 24.5
PLACE
3 16.5
8 33
11 12.5
QUINELLA
3,11 57
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 79.5
3,11 26
8,11 55.5
TIERCE
11,3,8 689
TRIO
3,8,11 139
FIRST 4
3,6,8,11 663
QUARTET
11,3,8,6 7,210
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
7/3 118.5
7/11 481