沙田 · 2019-10-12
第 3場
2019-10-12沙田第3場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由K Teetan策騎、P F Yiu訓練的ENCORE BOY勝出，贏出2-1/2。ELITE PATCH獲得亞軍；SILVER FIG獲得季軍。1.5倍大熱門SILVER FIG跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ENCORE BOY CP-/B1 1.08.49 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | ELITE PATCH B-/XB-/H2/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | SILVER FIG J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 11 | 1.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 12 | 60.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | TRIUMPHANT ARCH B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 56.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | HARBOUR ALERT CP L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 9 | 73.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | STAR LUCK K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 5 | 7.5 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING CP-/B2 Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 4 | 8.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | MR GENUINE B B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 1 | 43.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | GENERAL DINO B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 6 | 88.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR B1 K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 7 | 84.0 | 19-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SILVER FIG | 44.4% | 2.25 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 13.6% | 7.36 | 9 |
| 3 | 8 | STAR LUCK | 8.6% | 11.65 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | TRIUMPHANT ARCH | 6.9% | 14.59 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | ENCORE BOY | 5.8% | 17.32 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | MR GENUINE | 5.1% | 19.62 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 3.7% | 27.18 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | ELITE PATCH | 3.5% | 28.93 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | GENERAL DINO | 2.7% | 37.57 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP | 2.2% | 45.72 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 2.1% | 48.13 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | HARBOUR ALERT | 1.7% | 59.00 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 125
PLACE
2 11
5 23
12 28.5
QUINELLA
5,12 659
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 33.5
2,12 39
5,12 147
TIERCE
5,12,2 3,006
TRIO
2,5,12 235
FIRST 4
2,3,5,12 1,862
QUARTET
5,12,2,3 71,717
2ND DOUBLE
3/5 655
3/12 197
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 30