沙田 · 2019-12-15
第 1場
2019-12-15沙田第1場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由B Shinn策騎、K W Lui訓練的VALIANT DREAM勝出，贏出N。WAR OF COURAGE獲得亞軍；COLONEL獲得季軍。3.6倍大熱門SMART OF YOUTH跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM TT- 0.56.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 10 | 4.3 | N |
| 2 | 9 | WAR OF COURAGE C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 6.7 | N |
| 3 | 4 | COLONEL B1 H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 11 | 6.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | SMART OF YOUTH TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 14 | 3.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | KA FORTUNE H/XB T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 6 | 30.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | TANG TREASURE TT U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 13 | 86.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | TRUST ME B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 7 | 5.9 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | AURORA STEED B S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 3 | 24.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | PACKING NOBLESSE H1/TT1 H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 12 | 37.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | BRAVERY AND POWER B-/H1/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 5 | 88.0 | 11 |
| 11 | 14 | TARGET FINDER H/XB H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 132.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR XB C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 1 | 23.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | SPARKLING LIFE B1 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 30.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | WE THE SOUTH B1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 4 | 45.0 | 13-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WAR OF COURAGE | 21.0% | 4.76 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | SMART OF YOUTH | 18.1% | 5.51 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | WE THE SOUTH | 10.4% | 9.66 | 14 |
| 4 | 5 | PACKING NOBLESSE | 9.7% | 10.30 | 9 |
| 5 | 13 | TRUST ME | 7.5% | 13.37 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | COLONEL | 6.7% | 14.93 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | AURORA STEED | 6.6% | 15.19 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM | 6.5% | 15.34 | 1 |
| 9 | 8 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR | 3.7% | 27.08 | 12 |
| 10 | 2 | KA FORTUNE | 2.5% | 40.17 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | TANG TREASURE | 2.5% | 40.52 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | SPARKLING LIFE | 2.2% | 45.13 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | TARGET FINDER | 1.5% | 67.46 | 11 |
| 14 | 3 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 1.1% | 87.29 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 43.5
PLACE
1 17.5
4 24.5
9 24
QUINELLA
1,9 144.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 58.5
1,9 55.5
4,9 99
TIERCE
1,9,4 1,513
TRIO
1,4,9 301
FIRST 4
1,4,6,9 272
QUARTET
1,9,4,6 6,399
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 18.5