沙田 · 2019-12-15
第 10場
2019-12-15沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、F C Lor訓練的RELIABLE TEAM勝出，贏出1。SUPER ELEGANCE獲得亞軍；EZRA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門SMART PATCH跑獲第13名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RELIABLE TEAM 後段發力 1.34.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 11 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 13 | 19.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | EZRA 後段發力 B/XB S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 1 | 5.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK 早段領放 B U Rispoli · P O'Sullivan | U Rispoli | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 32.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING WARRIOR 後段發力 B-/CP2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 14 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | JIMMU B-/SR H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 198.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY 後段發力 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 161.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | ALCARI 後段發力 B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 10 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | TANGMERE 後段發力 V/XB M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 9 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | GAYSON B/XB B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 6 | 308.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | WIN WIN B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | SEERITE DRAGON L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 4 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | SMART PATCH B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 2 | 2.5 | 11 |
| 14 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 7 | 494.0 | 11-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RELIABLE TEAM | 25.2% | 3.97 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | ALCARI | 17.1% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 3 | 13 | EZRA | 13.0% | 7.72 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | SMART PATCH | 9.9% | 10.06 | 13 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING WARRIOR | 9.4% | 10.67 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 7.7% | 13.00 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | TANGMERE | 6.2% | 16.08 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY | 3.1% | 32.60 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK | 3.0% | 32.85 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | WIN WIN | 2.2% | 46.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | GAYSON | 1.0% | 103.08 | 10 |
| 12 | 2 | SEERITE DRAGON | 0.9% | 115.03 | 12 |
| 13 | 11 | JIMMU | 0.8% | 131.59 | 6 |
| 14 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY | 0.7% | 150.04 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 44
PLACE
3 16.5
10 46.5
13 17.5
QUINELLA
3,10 283.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 102
3,13 44
10,13 131.5
TIERCE
3,10,13 3,554
TRIO
3,10,13 577
FIRST 4
3,10,12,13 3,488
QUARTET
3,10,13,12 47,061
3 PICK 1
A2 22.5
A1 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,9/3,10,13 18,238
9TH DOUBLE
9/3 174.5
9/10 119.5
SIX UP
5,7,11/4,13/4,8/3,9/4,9/3,10 1,712
7,11/13/4/9/9/3 7,081
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/9/3 425
9/9/10 387