沙田 · 2019-12-15
第 4場
2019-12-15沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、R Gibson訓練的WICKER勝出，贏出1-1/4。CHAPARRAL STAR獲得亞軍；GOLDEN KID獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.7倍大熱門VIRTUS STAR跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | WICKER 一路領先 B 1.48.43 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 2 | 8.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CHAPARRAL STAR 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | GOLDEN KID 後段發力 B B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 3 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | DIVINE POWER 後段發力 B A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 6 | 75.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC 後段發力 B/XB/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 1 | 5.1 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY 後段發力 H/B2/TT J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 13 | 5.4 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | FULL OF CHANCES CP N Callan · T P Yung | N Callan | T P Yung | 7 | 28.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | OUR GREEN B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 5 | 86.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | VIRTUS STAR 後段發力 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 3.7 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | PROUD SKY V-/CP1 S De Sousa · L Ho | S De Sousa | L Ho | 8 | 12.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | GOLDEN TURBO 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 14 | 151.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | MCMUNIGAL TT T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 10 | 267.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | TIGERLAD B L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 4 | 170.0 | 17-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY | 18.6% | 5.39 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 12.3% | 8.12 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | PROUD SKY | 11.5% | 8.71 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | WICKER | 11.4% | 8.74 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | GOLDEN KID | 11.0% | 9.12 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | VIRTUS STAR | 10.8% | 9.30 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | CHAPARRAL STAR | 6.7% | 14.99 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 4.9% | 20.35 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | FULL OF CHANCES | 4.8% | 20.77 | 8 |
| 10 | 14 | OUR GREEN | 3.6% | 27.83 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | DIVINE POWER | 1.6% | 62.85 | 4 |
| 12 | 3 | GOLDEN TURBO | 1.2% | 86.89 | 12 |
| 13 | 7 | MCMUNIGAL | 1.1% | 91.85 | 13 |
| 14 | 9 | TIGERLAD | 0.7% | 152.99 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 81.5
PLACE
1 47.5
2 23
12 24
QUINELLA
1,12 608.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 171
1,12 196.5
2,12 78
TIERCE
12,1,2 9,733
TRIO
1,2,12 1,561
FIRST 4
1,2,5,12 18,058
QUARTET
12,1,2,5 283,897
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,10,12/1,2,12 130,109
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 25
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 208.5
10/12 404