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Sha Tin · 2019-12-15

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. WICKER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by R Gibson, won by 1-1/4, with CHAPARRAL STAR second and GOLDEN KID third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite VIRTUS STAR finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.48.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 WICKER Wire to wire B 1.48.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · R Gibson 2 8.1 1-1/4
2 1 CHAPARRAL STAR Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 17.0 1-1/4
3 2 GOLDEN KID Closed strongly B B Shinn · K W Lui 3 6.8 1-1/4
4 5 DIVINE POWER Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 6 75.0 2-1/2
5 6 REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip 1 5.1 3
6 4 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 11 11.0 3-3/4
7 13 ROMANTIC JOURNEY Closed strongly H/B2/TT J Moreira · C W Chang 13 5.4 5
8 8 FULL OF CHANCES CP N Callan · T P Yung 7 28.0 5-1/4
9 14 OUR GREEN B M F Poon · C H Yip 5 86.0 7
10 11 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 12 3.7 7-1/2
11 10 PROUD SKY V-/CP1 S De Sousa · L Ho 8 12.0 8-1/2
12 3 GOLDEN TURBO Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 14 151.0 12-3/4
13 7 MCMUNIGAL TT T H So · D J Hall 10 267.0 16-1/2
14 9 TIGERLAD B L Hewitson · R Gibson 4 170.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WICKER2. CHAPARRAL STAR+1.25L3. GOLDEN KID+1.25L4. DIVINE POWER+2.5L5. REEVE'S MUNTJAC+3L6. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3.75L7. ROMANTIC JOURNEY+5L8. FULL OF CHANCES+5.25L9. OUR GREEN+7L10. VIRTUS STAR+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ROMANTIC JOURNEY (18.6%) finished 7th — the winner WICKER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 ROMANTIC JOURNEY 18.6% 5.39 7
2 6 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 12.3% 8.12 5
3 10 PROUD SKY 11.5% 8.71 11
4 12 WICKER 11.4% 8.74 1
5 2 GOLDEN KID 11.0% 9.12 3
6 11 VIRTUS STAR 10.8% 9.30 10
7 1 CHAPARRAL STAR 6.7% 14.99 2
8 4 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 4.9% 20.35 6
9 8 FULL OF CHANCES 4.8% 20.77 8
10 14 OUR GREEN 3.6% 27.83 9
11 5 DIVINE POWER 1.6% 62.85 4
12 3 GOLDEN TURBO 1.2% 86.89 12
13 7 MCMUNIGAL 1.1% 91.85 13
14 9 TIGERLAD 0.7% 152.99 14
ROMANTIC JOURNEYREEVE'S MUNTJACPROUD SKYWICKER — wonGOLDEN KIDVIRTUS STARCHAPARRAL STARVICTORIOUS SEEKERFULL OF CHANCESOUR GREENDIVINE POWERGOLDEN TURBOMCMUNIGALTIGERLAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 81.5

PLACE

1 47.5

2 23

12 24

QUINELLA

1,12 608.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 171

1,12 196.5

2,12 78

TIERCE

12,1,2 9,733

TRIO

1,2,12 1,561

FIRST 4

1,2,5,12 18,058

QUARTET

12,1,2,5 283,897

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,12/1,2,12 130,109

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 25

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

10/1 208.5

10/12 404