Sha Tin · 2019-12-15
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ELITE PATCH, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with MEGA HEART second and HANDSOME BO BO third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 1.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | MEGA HEART XB/TT Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 12 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO SR1 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | HANDSOME REBEL B/H L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 23.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 11 | 51.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | BEAUTY ICON B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | STAR MAJESTIC B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 192.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GIANT TURTLE SR/TT H N Wong · A T Millard | H N Wong | A T Millard | 2 | 278.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 9 | 181.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | NATURAL WINNER TT- M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 8 | 89.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | TEAM FORTUNE B/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 3 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 1 | 30.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ELITE PATCH | 30.7% | 3.25 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | TEAM FORTUNE | 13.3% | 7.52 | 11 |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY ICON | 12.6% | 7.94 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 9.2% | 10.90 | 12 |
| 5 | 8 | MEGA HEART | 8.5% | 11.78 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | SOLOMON'S BAY | 7.4% | 13.55 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO | 4.5% | 22.08 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | STAR MAJESTIC | 3.4% | 29.74 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | HANDSOME REBEL | 3.1% | 32.17 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 2.8% | 35.96 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | NATURAL WINNER | 2.3% | 42.73 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | GIANT TURTLE | 2.2% | 44.87 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 14.5
PLACE
2 22
4 11.5
8 19.5
QUINELLA
4,8 50
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 32.5
2,8 76
4,8 23.5
TIERCE
4,8,2 324
TRIO
2,4,8 104
FIRST 4
2,4,8,9 305
QUARTET
4,8,2,9 2,443
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,10,13/2,4,8 2,451
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
13/4 55
13/8 73