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Sha Tin · 2019-12-15

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. WILL POWER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with DOLLAR REWARD second and FOODIE PRINCESS third. The 3.3 favourite ZERO HEDGE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WILL POWER XB1 1.09.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 4.0 1-1/2
2 3 DOLLAR REWARD P2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 6.4 1-1/2
3 12 FOODIE PRINCESS H/TT T H So · W Y So 5 27.0 2-1/2
4 6 SKY TREASURE H K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 34.0 3
5 2 ZERO HEDGE PC/XB J Moreira · J Size 3 3.3 4
6 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man 9 24.0 4
7 5 STRATHCLYDE B/TT C Schofield · A T Millard 1 17.0 4
8 8 CALIFORNIA RAD TT U Rispoli · A S Cruz 2 7.8 5
9 7 SUPREME PATROL B N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 7.0 5-1/4
10 4 HARBOUR ALERT CP-/B2 M Chadwick · C W Chang 11 51.0 13-1/4
11 1 GOLDIE FLANKER S De Sousa · P O'Sullivan 12 25.0 16-1/4
12 9 CIRCUIT FIVE PC1/TT1 C Y Ho · J Moore 7 71.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WILL POWER2. DOLLAR REWARD+1.5L3. FOODIE PRINCESS+2.5L4. SKY TREASURE+3L5. ZERO HEDGE+4L6. ALL BEST FRIENDS+4L7. STRATHCLYDE+4L8. CALIFORNIA RAD+5L9. SUPREME PATROL+5.25L10. HARBOUR ALERT+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ZERO HEDGE (31.0%) finished 5th — the winner WILL POWER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ZERO HEDGE 31.0% 3.23 5
2 3 DOLLAR REWARD 11.5% 8.68 2
3 8 CALIFORNIA RAD 10.9% 9.14 8
4 7 SUPREME PATROL 10.6% 9.42 9
5 5 STRATHCLYDE 8.7% 11.52 7
6 10 WILL POWER 7.0% 14.32 1
7 1 GOLDIE FLANKER 5.5% 18.31 11
8 9 CIRCUIT FIVE 5.2% 19.05 12
9 12 FOODIE PRINCESS 3.5% 28.59 3
10 6 SKY TREASURE 2.9% 34.20 4
11 4 HARBOUR ALERT 1.8% 55.02 10
12 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS 1.3% 74.68 6
ZERO HEDGEDOLLAR REWARDCALIFORNIA RADSUPREME PATROLSTRATHCLYDEWILL POWER — wonGOLDIE FLANKERCIRCUIT FIVEFOODIE PRINCESSSKY TREASUREHARBOUR ALERTALL BEST FRIENDS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 40.5

PLACE

3 20

10 19.5

12 56.5

QUINELLA

3,10 148.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 64.5

3,12 187.5

10,12 157

TIERCE

10,3,12 4,380

TRIO

3,10,12 985

FIRST 4

3,6,10,12 6,597

QUARTET

10,3,12,6 72,290

2ND DOUBLE

10/3 33

10/10 196.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 22

A1

A3