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Sha Tin · 2019-12-15

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-1/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and BIG FORTUNE third. The 3.0 favourite BIG FORTUNE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.08.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 1 3.1 2-1/4
2 4 COMPUTER PATCH XB1 S De Sousa · J Moore 12 10.0 2-1/4
3 5 BIG FORTUNE B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 6 3.0 2-1/2
4 2 LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 17.0 2-3/4
5 1 LONE EAGLE XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 3 5.3 2-3/4
6 8 GRADE ONE B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 9 16.0 3-3/4
7 6 HONEST WAY U Rispoli · D E Ferraris 8 16.0 4
8 3 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 30.0 4-1/4
9 10 EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 2 199.0 4-1/2
10 12 DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip 5 256.0 5-3/4
11 7 GREEN REIGN C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 21.0 6
12 11 MEGA RED B H N Wong · C W Chang 7 129.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE2. COMPUTER PATCH+2.25L3. BIG FORTUNE+2.5L4. LOCKHEED+2.75L5. LONE EAGLE+2.75L6. GRADE ONE+3.75L7. HONEST WAY+4L8. TEAM SPIRIT+4.25L9. EVER LAUGH+4.5L10. DECISIVE ACTION+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick QUADRUPLE DOUBLE (32.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 32.1% 3.12 1
2 1 LONE EAGLE 22.8% 4.39 5
3 5 BIG FORTUNE 16.3% 6.13 3
4 2 LOCKHEED 7.3% 13.78 4
5 3 TEAM SPIRIT 6.9% 14.56 8
6 4 COMPUTER PATCH 4.3% 23.26 2
7 8 GRADE ONE 2.6% 37.77 6
8 7 GREEN REIGN 2.2% 44.86 11
9 6 HONEST WAY 1.9% 52.40 7
10 11 MEGA RED 1.8% 55.38 12
11 12 DECISIVE ACTION 1.0% 104.20 10
12 10 EVER LAUGH 0.9% 114.84 9
QUADRUPLE DOUBLE — wonLONE EAGLEBIG FORTUNELOCKHEEDTEAM SPIRITCOMPUTER PATCHGRADE ONEGREEN REIGNHONEST WAYMEGA REDDECISIVE ACTIONEVER LAUGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 31

PLACE

4 30

5 13.5

9 13

QUINELLA

4,9 169

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 70

4,9 61.5

5,9 20.5

TIERCE

9,4,5 1,079

TRIO

4,5,9 170

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 468

QUARTET

9,4,5,2 10,203

3 PICK 1

A2 23

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

9/4 69.5

9/9 62.5