Sha Tin · 2019-12-15
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. RELIABLE TEAM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with SUPER ELEGANCE second and EZRA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite SMART PATCH finished 13th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RELIABLE TEAM Closed strongly 1.34.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 11 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 13 | 19.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | EZRA Closed strongly B/XB S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 1 | 5.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK Led early B U Rispoli · P O'Sullivan | U Rispoli | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 32.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING WARRIOR Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 14 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | JIMMU B-/SR H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 198.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY Closed strongly A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 161.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | ALCARI Closed strongly B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 10 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | TANGMERE Closed strongly V/XB M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 9 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | GAYSON B/XB B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 6 | 308.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | WIN WIN B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | SEERITE DRAGON L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 4 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | SMART PATCH B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 2 | 2.5 | 11 |
| 14 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 7 | 494.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RELIABLE TEAM | 25.2% | 3.97 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | ALCARI | 17.1% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 3 | 13 | EZRA | 13.0% | 7.72 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | SMART PATCH | 9.9% | 10.06 | 13 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING WARRIOR | 9.4% | 10.67 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 7.7% | 13.00 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | TANGMERE | 6.2% | 16.08 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY | 3.1% | 32.60 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK | 3.0% | 32.85 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | WIN WIN | 2.2% | 46.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | GAYSON | 1.0% | 103.08 | 10 |
| 12 | 2 | SEERITE DRAGON | 0.9% | 115.03 | 12 |
| 13 | 11 | JIMMU | 0.8% | 131.59 | 6 |
| 14 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY | 0.7% | 150.04 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 44
PLACE
3 16.5
10 46.5
13 17.5
QUINELLA
3,10 283.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 102
3,13 44
10,13 131.5
TIERCE
3,10,13 3,554
TRIO
3,10,13 577
FIRST 4
3,10,12,13 3,488
QUARTET
3,10,13,12 47,061
3 PICK 1
A2 22.5
A1 —
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,9/3,10,13 18,238
9TH DOUBLE
9/3 174.5
9/10 119.5
SIX UP
5,7,11/4,13/4,8/3,9/4,9/3,10 1,712
7,11/13/4/9/9/3 7,081
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/9/3 425
9/9/10 387