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Sha Tin · 2019-12-15

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT MATCH, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with JOYFUL TRINITY second and DECRYPT third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.20.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 PERFECT MATCH Wire to wire B/TT 1.20.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 2 2.2 3/4
2 3 JOYFUL TRINITY Closed strongly M F Poon · C Fownes 6 34.0 3/4
3 1 DECRYPT Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 9 9.9 1-3/4
4 11 BEAUTY RUSH Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size 1 2.8 3
5 5 SUPERICH Closed strongly SR/TT T H So · F C Lor 4 42.0 3-3/4
6 13 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT1 H N Wong · J Moore 3 99.0 4
7 6 TAKING AIM XB- L Hewitson · J Moore 8 25.0 4-1/2
8 14 YOO YOO KING S De Sousa · A T Millard 5 10.0 4-3/4
9 8 CIRCUIT NUMBER TWO B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 19.0 5-3/4
10 12 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly H W Lai · K W Lui 12 132.0 5-3/4
11 2 DRAGON GENERAL Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 58.0 6-3/4
12 4 LITTLE BIRD V- C Y Ho · P F Yiu 14 163.0 8
13 10 SUNSET WATCH XB/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 13 344.0 8-1/2
14 7 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 10 36.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT MATCH2. JOYFUL TRINITY+0.75L3. DECRYPT+1.75L4. BEAUTY RUSH+3L5. SUPERICH+3.75L6. SAVVY NINE+4L7. TAKING AIM+4.5L8. YOO YOO KING+4.75L9. CIRCUIT NUMBER TWO+5.75L10. NOBLE STEED+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PERFECT MATCH (24.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 PERFECT MATCH 24.3% 4.12 1
2 11 BEAUTY RUSH 23.7% 4.21 4
3 8 CIRCUIT NUMBER TWO 13.7% 7.30 9
4 14 YOO YOO KING 7.4% 13.51 8
5 1 DECRYPT 7.2% 13.82 3
6 7 BEAUTY SPIRIT 4.5% 22.01 14
7 5 SUPERICH 4.4% 22.66 5
8 3 JOYFUL TRINITY 3.8% 26.46 2
9 2 DRAGON GENERAL 2.9% 34.49 11
10 12 NOBLE STEED 2.1% 47.44 10
11 6 TAKING AIM 2.0% 50.40 7
12 13 SAVVY NINE 1.4% 69.54 6
13 4 LITTLE BIRD 1.4% 71.74 12
14 10 SUNSET WATCH 1.1% 89.42 13
PERFECT MATCH — wonBEAUTY RUSHCIRCUIT NUMBER TWOYOO YOO KINGDECRYPTBEAUTY SPIRITSUPERICHJOYFUL TRINITYDRAGON GENERALNOBLE STEEDTAKING AIMSAVVY NINELITTLE BIRDSUNSET WATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 22

PLACE

1 27.5

3 65.5

9 12

QUINELLA

3,9 371.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 410

1,9 45.5

3,9 117

TIERCE

9,3,1 4,487

TRIO

1,3,9 1,305

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 483

QUARTET

9,3,1,11 13,640

3 PICK 1

A1 12.5

A2

A3

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

4/3 59.5

4/9 30