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Sha Tin · 2019-12-15

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VICTORIOUS LEADER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-1/4, with SEIZE THE SPIRIT second and SUREWIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite GREAT HARVEST finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly CP- 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 8 3.6 2-1/4
2 8 SEIZE THE SPIRIT Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 5 73.0 2-1/4
3 9 SUREWIN Closed strongly B N Callan · C W Chang 2 9.2 2-1/4
4 3 GENERAL TRUMP Closed strongly TT K C Leung · T P Yung 6 12.0 2-1/2
5 5 SUPREME WITNESS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 18.0 2-1/2
6 11 MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 13 100.0 3-1/4
7 1 GALAXY RACER Closed strongly H N Wong · K H Ting 9 30.0 3-1/2
8 6 BIG BULLY B J Moreira · D J Hall 12 6.2 4
9 2 GREAT HARVEST B S De Sousa · K L Man 10 3.5 4
10 12 MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR B-/XB B Shinn · C Fownes 4 15.0 5-1/2
11 14 ROCKAGE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT A Badel · K W Lui 11 31.0 5-3/4
12 13 LUCKY STORM Closed strongly B2/H2 M Chadwick · R Gibson 7 36.0 6-1/4
13 4 SUPER FUN Led early H H T Mo · C H Yip 3 16.0 6-1/2
14 7 HIDDEN SPIRIT B/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 14 77.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORIOUS LEADER2. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+2.25L3. SUREWIN+2.25L4. GENERAL TRUMP+2.5L5. SUPREME WITNESS+2.5L6. MONEY WINNER+3.25L7. GALAXY RACER+3.5L8. BIG BULLY+4L9. GREAT HARVEST+4L10. MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BIG BULLY (19.2%) finished 8th — the winner VICTORIOUS LEADER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BIG BULLY 19.2% 5.21 8
2 10 VICTORIOUS LEADER 16.3% 6.13 1
3 2 GREAT HARVEST 11.8% 8.48 9
4 5 SUPREME WITNESS 9.0% 11.09 5
5 9 SUREWIN 7.9% 12.64 3
6 7 HIDDEN SPIRIT 7.7% 12.97 14
7 3 GENERAL TRUMP 6.9% 14.52 4
8 12 MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR 5.8% 17.10 10
9 4 SUPER FUN 4.7% 21.21 13
10 14 ROCKAGE 2.7% 36.71 11
11 8 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 2.1% 46.63 2
12 13 LUCKY STORM 2.0% 49.59 12
13 11 MONEY WINNER 2.0% 50.01 6
14 1 GALAXY RACER 1.8% 56.80 7
BIG BULLYVICTORIOUS LEADER — wonGREAT HARVESTSUPREME WITNESSSUREWINHIDDEN SPIRITGENERAL TRUMPMAJESTIC ENDEAVOURSUPER FUNROCKAGESEIZE THE SPIRITLUCKY STORMMONEY WINNERGALAXY RACER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 36.5

PLACE

8 155

9 28

10 16

QUINELLA

8,10 1,341.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 770

8,10 410

9,10 57

TIERCE

10,8,9 13,516

TRIO

8,9,10 2,536

FIRST 4

3,8,9,10 5,509

QUARTET

10,8,9,3 120,385

1ST DOUBLE

1/8 454.5

1/10 188

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 23

A2