跑馬地 · 2019-12-26
第 7場
2019-12-26跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、L Ho訓練的MAGNIFICENT勝出，贏出2-3/4。ZHAN JIANG ROCKS獲得亞軍；RACING LUCK獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門PICKEN跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT 後段發力 1.39.83 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 10 | 8.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 後段發力 TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 3 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | RACING LUCK 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | CHARIZARD TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 5.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI 後段發力 G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | CRAIG'S STAR B B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 2 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | PICKEN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 2.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B-/TT1 L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 6 | 66.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | TANGMERE V/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 5 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | THE RUNNER 早段領放 S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 9 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | WAR ROOM A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 8 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | ARCADA C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PICKEN | 31.6% | 3.16 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 13.4% | 7.49 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | CRAIG'S STAR | 10.9% | 9.17 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | CHARIZARD | 9.9% | 10.08 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | WAR ROOM | 6.8% | 14.68 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 5.8% | 17.19 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | RACING LUCK | 5.6% | 17.94 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | TANGMERE | 4.6% | 21.55 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST | 4.4% | 22.53 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT | 4.2% | 23.57 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | THE RUNNER | 2.3% | 43.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 0.4% | 267.12 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 89.5
PLACE
3 43
5 37
9 28
QUINELLA
3,9 494.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 234
3,9 158.5
5,9 170
TIERCE
9,3,5 8,375
TRIO
3,5,9 1,819
FIRST 4
3,5,6,9 1,308
QUARTET
9,3,5,6 30,244
3 PICK 1
A2 45
A1 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
6TH DOUBLE
2/3 73.5
2/9 392
TRIPLE TRIO
2,5,12/2,4,12/3,5,9 2,605,125
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,12/2,4,12/Any Combination 1,948