Happy Valley · 2019-12-26
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-26 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MAGNIFICENT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by L Ho, won by 2-3/4, with ZHAN JIANG ROCKS second and RACING LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite PICKEN finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT Closed strongly 1.39.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 10 | 8.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 3 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | RACING LUCK Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | CHARIZARD TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 5.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI Closed strongly G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | CRAIG'S STAR B B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 2 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | PICKEN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 2.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B-/TT1 L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 6 | 66.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | TANGMERE V/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 5 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | THE RUNNER Led early S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 9 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | WAR ROOM A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 8 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | ARCADA C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PICKEN | 31.6% | 3.16 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 13.4% | 7.49 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | CRAIG'S STAR | 10.9% | 9.17 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | CHARIZARD | 9.9% | 10.08 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | WAR ROOM | 6.8% | 14.68 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 5.8% | 17.19 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | RACING LUCK | 5.6% | 17.94 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | TANGMERE | 4.6% | 21.55 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST | 4.4% | 22.53 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | MAGNIFICENT | 4.2% | 23.57 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | THE RUNNER | 2.3% | 43.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 0.4% | 267.12 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 89.5
PLACE
3 43
5 37
9 28
QUINELLA
3,9 494.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 234
3,9 158.5
5,9 170
TIERCE
9,3,5 8,375
TRIO
3,5,9 1,819
FIRST 4
3,5,6,9 1,308
QUARTET
9,3,5,6 30,244
3 PICK 1
A2 45
A1 —
A3 —
All pools (3 more)
6TH DOUBLE
2/3 73.5
2/9 392
TRIPLE TRIO
2,5,12/2,4,12/3,5,9 2,605,125
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,12/2,4,12/Any Combination 1,948