Happy Valley · 2019-12-26
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-26 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PRIVATE SECRETARY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with HAPPY DRAGON second and BAND OF BROTHERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite BAND OF BROTHERS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PRIVATE SECRETARY Closed strongly TT1 1.39.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | HAPPY DRAGON Closed strongly H M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 10 | 25.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | BAND OF BROTHERS Closed strongly K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 3.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | BUTTERFIELD XB/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 8 | 57.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | HARMONY HERO Closed strongly B/H/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | GOOD OMEN Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SUPER OASIS Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 12 | 6.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | RACING FIGHTER Closed strongly B-/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 2 | 175.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | THE HULK XB J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 4.1 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | HEZTHEWONFORUS Led early SR B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 6 | 6.5 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER TURBO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 33.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | GRACEANDMERCY XB S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 5 | 19.0 | 16 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 26.1% | 3.84 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | SUPER OASIS | 19.7% | 5.09 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | THE HULK | 16.0% | 6.27 | 9 |
| 4 | 10 | HARMONY HERO | 9.2% | 10.90 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | HEZTHEWONFORUS | 9.0% | 11.11 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | SUPER TURBO | 5.0% | 20.07 | 11 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY DRAGON | 4.8% | 20.94 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | GRACEANDMERCY | 3.3% | 30.06 | 12 |
| 9 | 6 | PRIVATE SECRETARY | 3.3% | 30.32 | 1 |
| 10 | 9 | GOOD OMEN | 1.5% | 65.27 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.2% | 82.30 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | BUTTERFIELD | 1.0% | 96.98 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 116.5
PLACE
4 54.5
6 34.5
11 15.5
QUINELLA
4,6 1,088
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 262.5
4,11 108
6,11 75
TIERCE
6,4,11 6,660
TRIO
4,6,11 1,083
FIRST 4
4,6,7,11 6,510
QUARTET
6,4,11,7 127,633
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,9/4,6,11 139,933
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 34.5
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
9/4 225
9/6 757