Happy Valley · 2019-12-26
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LIGHTNING MISSILE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K L Man, won by N, with SHOW MISSION second and NASHASHUK third. The 2.3 favourite BLOOMING SPIRIT finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LIGHTNING MISSILE B/TT 1.10.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 1 | 26.0 | N |
| 2 | 10 | SHOW MISSION B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 10 | 24.0 | N |
| 3 | 12 | NASHASHUK P/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 6.8 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | BLOOMING SPIRIT B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | STARLOT B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 18.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | MULTIMAX B/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 5 | 94.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | I'M THE CONQUIST B A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 4 | 3.8 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE SR/TT S De Sousa · W Y So | S De Sousa | W Y So | 3 | 9.2 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | DATING B/TT N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 12 | 136.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | BANDY B L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 8 | 169.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 34.6% | 2.89 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 21.5% | 4.65 | 9 |
| 3 | 6 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE | 10.2% | 9.81 | 10 |
| 4 | 12 | NASHASHUK | 7.9% | 12.59 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 5.3% | 18.82 | 8 |
| 6 | 11 | LIGHTNING MISSILE | 5.0% | 20.01 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 | STARLOT | 4.9% | 20.55 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | SHOW MISSION | 4.0% | 24.86 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | DATING | 2.2% | 45.59 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | FOX CHEUNGER | 1.8% | 55.68 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | MULTIMAX | 1.5% | 68.27 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | BANDY | 1.1% | 91.00 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 268.5
PLACE
10 51
11 52
12 21
QUINELLA
10,11 1,827.5
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 391.5
10,12 181
11,12 183.5
TIERCE
11,10,12 20,973
TRIO
10,11,12 2,720
FIRST 4
1,10,11,12 1,364
QUARTET
11,10,12,1 63,683
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 44
A2 —