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Happy Valley · 2019-12-26

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course A 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-26 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. CLEMENT LEGEND, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with STIMULATION second and TASHIDELEK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite TASHIDELEK finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.16.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 2.16.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum 7 5.6 SH
2 3 STIMULATION Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 8 8.6 SH
3 4 TASHIDELEK Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · J Moore 9 2.0 N
4 10 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris 10 16.0 1-3/4
5 7 OWNERS' STAR B/TT N Callan · C S Shum 2 6.9 2-1/2
6 5 GIANT TURTLE Led early SR/TT M F Poon · A T Millard 5 13.0 4-3/4
7 2 ARCATRAZ Closed strongly CP/XB R Bayliss · J Moore 6 133.0 4-3/4
8 8 CROWN AVENUE V M Chadwick · C H Yip 4 36.0 14-1/4
9 1 WIND GLIDER K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 1 42.0 18-1/2
10 9 JIMMU SR A Badel · Y S Tsui 3 12.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CLEMENT LEGEND2. STIMULATION+0.1L3. TASHIDELEK+0.05L4. MAGNETISM+1.75L5. OWNERS' STAR+2.5L6. GIANT TURTLE+4.75L7. ARCATRAZ+4.75L8. CROWN AVENUE+14.25L9. WIND GLIDER+18.5L10. JIMMU+18.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TASHIDELEK (41.3%) finished 3rd — the winner CLEMENT LEGEND was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TASHIDELEK 41.3% 2.42 3
2 7 OWNERS' STAR 12.3% 8.12 5
3 3 STIMULATION 10.9% 9.17 2
4 8 CROWN AVENUE 8.2% 12.16 8
5 10 MAGNETISM 7.8% 12.90 4
6 6 CLEMENT LEGEND 6.7% 14.97 1
7 9 JIMMU 6.6% 15.13 10
8 5 GIANT TURTLE 4.3% 23.14 6
9 1 WIND GLIDER 1.1% 93.00 9
10 2 ARCATRAZ 0.8% 121.77 7
TASHIDELEKOWNERS' STARSTIMULATIONCROWN AVENUEMAGNETISMCLEMENT LEGEND — wonJIMMUGIANT TURTLEWIND GLIDERARCATRAZ

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 56

PLACE

3 23.5

4 12.5

6 15

QUINELLA

3,6 192.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 41

3,6 57

4,6 25.5

TIERCE

6,3,4 875

TRIO

3,4,6 100

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 185

QUARTET

6,3,4,10 5,942

1ST DOUBLE

11/3 279

11/6 1,497.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 15

A3