Happy Valley · 2019-12-26
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-26 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING METHOD, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with SNAP FIT second and SHINING ACE third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WINNING METHOD B/TT 1.09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 1 | 3.9 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SNAP FIT B/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 4 | 4.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | SHINING ACE B B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 9 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | BABY B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 7.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING KIWI K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 7 | 5.4 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | STARLIGHT S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 6 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | POWERMAX B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | LE TERROIR CP/H/XB J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 5 | 6.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | MR PICASSO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 135.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | HANDSOME REBEL B/H N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 8 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | ANONYMA TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 10 | 310.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | KA YING MASTER TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 12 | 77.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SNAP FIT | 28.0% | 3.57 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | LE TERROIR | 22.4% | 4.46 | 8 |
| 3 | 9 | WINNING METHOD | 9.0% | 11.09 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | SHINING ACE | 8.1% | 12.33 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | BABY | 6.7% | 14.91 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | AMAZING KIWI | 6.3% | 15.93 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | POWERMAX | 5.7% | 17.45 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | STARLIGHT | 5.5% | 18.04 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | KA YING MASTER | 3.2% | 31.70 | 12 |
| 10 | 7 | HANDSOME REBEL | 2.4% | 42.07 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | MR PICASSO | 2.3% | 43.17 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | ANONYMA | 0.4% | 278.71 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 39.5
PLACE
2 34
4 18.5
9 15.5
QUINELLA
4,9 93.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 89
2,9 77
4,9 37.5
TIERCE
9,4,2 1,366
TRIO
2,4,9 303
FIRST 4
2,4,8,9 571
QUARTET
9,4,2,8 9,227
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21.5
All pools (3 more)
8TH DOUBLE
6/4 60.5
6/9 548.5
SIX UP
2,10/2,5/2,4/3,9/4,6/4,9 8,699
10/2/2/9/6/9 2,426,087
5 [G van Niekerk] —
TREBLE
9/6/4 340
9/6/9 3,912