跑馬地 · 2020-02-26
第 4場
2020-02-26跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由K H Chan策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的VERY SWEET ORANGE勝出，贏出HD。SUPER LUCKY獲得亞軍；WINNING WAYS獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門OVERSUBSCRIBED跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V 0.56.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 8 | 8.2 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER LUCKY B/H/XB N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 3 | 19.0 | HD |
| 3 | 5 | WINNING WAYS H/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | DR PROACTIVE H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 12 | 96.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY P-/B2/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 6 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | THOU SHALL SING B1/TT- C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 8.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | AURORA STEED B L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 9 | 92.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART CP1 C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 2 | 8.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | E GENERATION XB/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 131.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 4 | 19.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART | 19.4% | 5.17 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 18.2% | 5.49 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 11.1% | 9.02 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | WINNING WAYS | 10.3% | 9.74 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER LUCKY | 9.4% | 10.68 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 8.6% | 11.58 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 8.1% | 12.31 | 1 |
| 8 | 9 | THOU SHALL SING | 3.8% | 26.41 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | DR PROACTIVE | 3.3% | 30.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | BEAUT BEAUT | 3.0% | 33.38 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | E GENERATION | 2.8% | 35.72 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | AURORA STEED | 2.1% | 47.83 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 82.5
PLACE
3 25.5
5 24.5
8 50.5
QUINELLA
3,8 627
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 97.5
3,8 181
5,8 161.5
TIERCE
3,8,5 7,223
TRIO
3,5,8 1,301
FIRST 4
3,5,6,8 10,076
QUARTET
3,8,5,6 205,735
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 27
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 1,127.5
7/8 261