Happy Valley · 2020-02-26
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-26 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. VERY SWEET ORANGE, ridden by K H Chan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by HD, with SUPER LUCKY second and WINNING WAYS third. The 3.3 favourite OVERSUBSCRIBED finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V 0.56.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 8 | 8.2 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER LUCKY B/H/XB N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 3 | 19.0 | HD |
| 3 | 5 | WINNING WAYS H/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | DR PROACTIVE H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 12 | 96.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY P-/B2/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 6 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | THOU SHALL SING B1/TT- C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 8.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | AURORA STEED B L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 9 | 92.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART CP1 C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 2 | 8.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | E GENERATION XB/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 131.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 4 | 19.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART | 19.4% | 5.17 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 18.2% | 5.49 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 11.1% | 9.02 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | WINNING WAYS | 10.3% | 9.74 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER LUCKY | 9.4% | 10.68 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 8.6% | 11.58 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 8.1% | 12.31 | 1 |
| 8 | 9 | THOU SHALL SING | 3.8% | 26.41 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | DR PROACTIVE | 3.3% | 30.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | BEAUT BEAUT | 3.0% | 33.38 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | E GENERATION | 2.8% | 35.72 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | AURORA STEED | 2.1% | 47.83 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 82.5
PLACE
3 25.5
5 24.5
8 50.5
QUINELLA
3,8 627
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 97.5
3,8 181
5,8 161.5
TIERCE
3,8,5 7,223
TRIO
3,5,8 1,301
FIRST 4
3,5,6,8 10,076
QUARTET
3,8,5,6 205,735
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 27
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 1,127.5
7/8 261