Happy Valley · 2020-02-26
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-26 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. INVINCIBLE MISSILE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/2, with SHINING ACE second and CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT third. The 2.5 favourite CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE B/TT 1.09.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 6 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | SHINING ACE B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 11 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 3 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | VICTORY POWER B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 12 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 8 | 86.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | LOVING A BOOM B/TT T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 5 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | SUNSET WATCH XB/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 1 | 8.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | JADE THEATRE B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 70.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | LE TERROIR H-/XB-/CP M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 4 | 66.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 40.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 10 | 4.6 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | SUNNY BOY CP-/B1/TT1 B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 7 | 25.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 26.5% | 3.77 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 21.2% | 4.72 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 18.3% | 5.46 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | SHINING ACE | 9.3% | 10.74 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | LOVING A BOOM | 5.9% | 16.92 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | VICTORY POWER | 4.7% | 21.20 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | SUNNY BOY | 3.9% | 25.53 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | CUE THE MUSIC | 3.1% | 32.59 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | LE TERROIR | 3.0% | 33.20 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | SUNSET WATCH | 2.0% | 49.17 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 1.3% | 78.78 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | JADE THEATRE | 0.7% | 137.06 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 85
PLACE
5 25.5
6 29
8 13.5
QUINELLA
5,6 373
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 95
5,8 42.5
6,8 51.5
TIERCE
5,6,8 2,735
TRIO
5,6,8 363
FIRST 4
5,6,8,11 578
QUARTET
5,6,8,11 16,725
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 29.5
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4>5,10,12/5,6,8 4,498
8TH DOUBLE
5,12/5 160
5,12/6 54.5
SIX UP
3/4/2/8/5,12/5 1,224,914
3,8/4,9/2,7/1,8/5,10,12/5,6 33,343
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
8/5,12/5 2,559
8/5,12/6 614