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Happy Valley · 2020-02-26

Race 7

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-26 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WALDORF, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with FAT TURTLE second and HONG KONG BET third. The 1.5 favourite AMAZING STAR finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WALDORF B/TT 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 11.0 N
2 1 FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 5.6 N
3 9 HONG KONG BET TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 5 35.0 1/2
4 2 COUNTRY STAR A Badel · J Size 9 16.0 3/4
5 5 GUNNISON M F Poon · J Size 7 14.0 3/4
6 6 TORNADO TWIST E/TT C Schofield · J Size 10 15.0 1-3/4
7 4 AMAZING STAR Z Purton · K H Ting 8 1.5 2-1/2
8 7 GENTLE BREEZE B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 1 16.0 2-1/2
9 3 SPEEDY KING T Piccone · P F Yiu 6 46.0 4-1/2
10 10 HELENA BABY L Hewitson · J Moore 3 186.0 4-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WALDORF2. FAT TURTLE+0.05L3. HONG KONG BET+0.5L4. COUNTRY STAR+0.75L5. GUNNISON+0.75L6. TORNADO TWIST+1.75L7. AMAZING STAR+2.5L8. GENTLE BREEZE+2.5L9. SPEEDY KING+4.5L10. HELENA BABY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AMAZING STAR (41.8%) finished 7th — the winner WALDORF was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 AMAZING STAR 41.8% 2.39 7
2 1 FAT TURTLE 14.9% 6.69 2
3 7 GENTLE BREEZE 9.3% 10.77 8
4 8 WALDORF 7.8% 12.76 1
5 9 HONG KONG BET 6.8% 14.64 3
6 5 GUNNISON 5.3% 18.73 5
7 6 TORNADO TWIST 4.7% 21.21 6
8 2 COUNTRY STAR 4.6% 21.66 4
9 3 SPEEDY KING 3.9% 25.68 9
10 10 HELENA BABY 0.7% 143.22 10
AMAZING STARFAT TURTLEGENTLE BREEZEWALDORF — wonHONG KONG BETGUNNISONTORNADO TWISTCOUNTRY STARSPEEDY KINGHELENA BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 119.5

PLACE

1 16.5

8 25

9 59.5

QUINELLA

1,8 300

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 67.5

1,9 174.5

8,9 271

TIERCE

8,1,9 15,977

TRIO

1,8,9 2,494

FIRST 4

1,2,8,9 3,513

QUARTET

8,1,9,2 86,843

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,7/1,8,9 172,274

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 47.5

6TH DOUBLE

2/1 227.5

2/8 1,645

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,9/1,2,7/Any Combination 42,827