Happy Valley · 2020-02-26
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-26 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WALDORF, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with FAT TURTLE second and HONG KONG BET third. The 1.5 favourite AMAZING STAR finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WALDORF B/TT 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 11.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 5.6 | N |
| 3 | 9 | HONG KONG BET TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 5 | 35.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | COUNTRY STAR A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 9 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | GUNNISON M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 7 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | TORNADO TWIST E/TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 10 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | AMAZING STAR Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 8 | 1.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | GENTLE BREEZE B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 1 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | SPEEDY KING T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 6 | 46.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | HELENA BABY L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 3 | 186.0 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | AMAZING STAR | 41.8% | 2.39 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | FAT TURTLE | 14.9% | 6.69 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | GENTLE BREEZE | 9.3% | 10.77 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | WALDORF | 7.8% | 12.76 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | HONG KONG BET | 6.8% | 14.64 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | GUNNISON | 5.3% | 18.73 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | TORNADO TWIST | 4.7% | 21.21 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | COUNTRY STAR | 4.6% | 21.66 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | SPEEDY KING | 3.9% | 25.68 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | HELENA BABY | 0.7% | 143.22 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 119.5
PLACE
1 16.5
8 25
9 59.5
QUINELLA
1,8 300
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 67.5
1,9 174.5
8,9 271
TIERCE
8,1,9 15,977
TRIO
1,8,9 2,494
FIRST 4
1,2,8,9 3,513
QUARTET
8,1,9,2 86,843
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,7/1,8,9 172,274
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 47.5
6TH DOUBLE
2/1 227.5
2/8 1,645
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,6,9/1,2,7/Any Combination 42,827