跑馬地 · 2020-03-04
第 5場
2020-03-04跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、C Fownes訓練的SHAMPORT勝出，贏出N。WOOD ON FIRE獲得亞軍；MEHBOOB獲得季軍。2.7倍大熱門MEHBOOB跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SHAMPORT TT 1.11.01 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 7.6 | N |
| 2 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE CP/H M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | MEHBOOB XB Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 2.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | THIS IS CHARISMA H/B1 K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 1 | 6.2 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | EVERBRAVE B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 8 | 55.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 198.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 4.7 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | ADONIS H-/CP1 K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 9 | 33.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | GRAND HARBOUR H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 191.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | VICTORY FOR ALL B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 7 | 7.9 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | ISLAND WINNER P-/XB/CP2/TT C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 4 | 16.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | DASHING GRACE P/TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 5 | 408.0 | 10-1/2 |
| — | 0 | CEREFINO K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MEHBOOB | 22.9% | 4.38 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 20.1% | 4.97 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 16.3% | 6.15 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE | 8.5% | 11.74 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | SHAMPORT | 8.3% | 12.06 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | VICTORY FOR ALL | 7.4% | 13.45 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | ADONIS | 6.9% | 14.58 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 | ISLAND WINNER | 5.9% | 17.08 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | EVERBRAVE | 1.9% | 52.29 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | GRAND HARBOUR | 1.0% | 103.28 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR | 0.5% | 185.68 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | DASHING GRACE | 0.4% | 260.63 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 76.5
PLACE
1 24
2 13.5
9 29
QUINELLA
1,9 384.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 33.5
1,9 88.5
2,9 47
TIERCE
1,9,2 2,398
TRIO
1,2,9 251
FIRST 4
1,2,5,9 309
QUARTET
1,9,2,5 10,530
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
8/1 253.5
8/9 50.5