沙田 · 2020-04-26
第 3場
2020-04-26沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、F C Lor訓練的TRUE LEGEND勝出，贏出SH。GOOD LUCK FRIEND獲得亞軍；SO WE JOY獲得季軍。2.4倍大熱門GOOD LUCK FRIEND跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | TRUE LEGEND CP1 1.09.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 21.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 12 | 2.4 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | SO WE JOY CP/TT C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 9 | 37.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA B C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | JUDY'S STAR B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 4.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HONEST WAY B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 4.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | STOCK LEGEND B/H A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | SPEEDY DRAGON V Borges · D J Hall | V Borges | D J Hall | 14 | 132.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 13 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 250.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | JADE THEATRE B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 3 | 140.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | BOND A STAR T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 8 | 196.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | COOL ACE H-/B H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 10 | 448.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA | 20.5% | 4.88 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | RHAPSODY | 19.1% | 5.24 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | JUDY'S STAR | 9.3% | 10.81 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | TRUE LEGEND | 6.7% | 14.98 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | STOCK LEGEND | 4.5% | 22.33 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | VOYAGE STAR | 3.2% | 31.17 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | HONEST WAY | 3.1% | 32.53 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | UNITED WE STAND | 2.8% | 36.18 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | SO WE JOY | 2.7% | 37.26 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 1.8% | 56.25 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | JADE THEATRE | 1.7% | 57.67 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | BOND A STAR | 1.2% | 83.63 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | COOL ACE | 0.7% | 144.92 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 215
PLACE
1 13
9 89.5
10 50
QUINELLA
1,10 224.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 134
1,10 80
9,10 446
TIERCE
10,1,9 9,785
TRIO
1,9,10 1,130
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 1,460
QUARTET
10,1,9,4 45,840
2ND DOUBLE
13/1 94.5
13/10 2,583
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 52