沙田 · 2020-04-26
第 6場
2020-04-26沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的FANTASTIC SHOW勝出，贏出1-1/4。PICKEN獲得亞軍；HELLO DADDY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。1.5倍大熱門WELLINGTON跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B 1.21.51 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 8 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | PICKEN 後段發力 K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 2 | 67.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HELLO DADDY 早段領放 B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 5 | 109.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY SMILE 後段發力 TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 8.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SACRED IBIS 後段發力 XB C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 14 | 139.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | WELLINGTON Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 3 | 1.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | HARMONY SPIRIT 後段發力 XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 9 | 86.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | THE DRIVE 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 6 | 343.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 11 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | TOYCOON XB N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 1 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 後段發力 H V Borges · D J Hall | V Borges | D J Hall | 7 | 77.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | E STAR H A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 4 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 21.0 | 8 |
| 14 | 12 | SMART COUSIN T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 10 | 693.0 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 0 | COOL TEAM V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WELLINGTON | 42.9% | 2.33 | 6 |
| 2 | 10 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 22.3% | 4.49 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | BEAUTY SMILE | 8.5% | 11.79 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | TOYCOON | 6.3% | 15.85 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 5.2% | 19.29 | 13 |
| 6 | 7 | HELLO BEAUTY | 3.9% | 25.48 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | PICKEN | 3.3% | 29.88 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | E STAR | 2.4% | 40.87 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | SACRED IBIS | 1.7% | 58.28 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | HELLO DADDY | 1.0% | 100.60 | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | HARMONY SPIRIT | 0.9% | 112.89 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 0.8% | 121.72 | 11 |
| 13 | 14 | THE DRIVE | 0.4% | 235.63 | 8 |
| 14 | 12 | SMART COUSIN | 0.3% | 350.57 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 70
PLACE
4 170.5
8 92
10 15.5
QUINELLA
8,10 1,064.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 2,872
4,10 521
8,10 222.5
TIERCE
10,8,4 71,042
TRIO
4,8,10 21,989
FIRST 4
3,4,8,10 21,230
QUARTET
10,8,4,3 577,844
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 37
A1 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
5TH DOUBLE
3/8 2,100
3/10 1,224
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,11,13/2,3,9/Any Combination 312,230