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Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC SHOW, ridden by J Moreira and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with PICKEN second and HELLO DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.5 favourite WELLINGTON finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B 1.21.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · Y S Tsui 8 7.0 1-1/4
2 8 PICKEN Closed strongly K C Leung · J Size 2 67.0 1-1/4
3 4 HELLO DADDY Led early B M F Poon · K H Ting 5 109.0 1-1/4
4 3 BEAUTY SMILE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 8.5 1-1/2
5 9 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB C Schofield · A T Millard 14 139.0 1-1/2
6 1 WELLINGTON Z Purton · R Gibson 3 1.5 3-1/4
7 2 HARMONY SPIRIT Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 9 86.0 3-1/4
8 14 THE DRIVE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 6 343.0 4
9 7 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT M Chadwick · J Moore 11 18.0 5
10 6 TOYCOON XB N Callan · P F Yiu 1 12.0 5
11 5 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly H V Borges · D J Hall 7 77.0 5-1/4
12 13 E STAR H A Hamelin · K L Man 4 23.0 6
13 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 21.0 8
14 12 SMART COUSIN T H So · C H Yip 10 693.0 13-3/4
0 COOL TEAM V Borges · P O'Sullivan

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC SHOW2. PICKEN+1.25L3. HELLO DADDY+1.25L4. BEAUTY SMILE+1.5L5. SACRED IBIS+1.5L6. WELLINGTON+3.25L7. HARMONY SPIRIT+3.25L8. THE DRIVE+4L9. HELLO BEAUTY+5L10. TOYCOON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WELLINGTON (42.9%) finished 6th — the winner FANTASTIC SHOW was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 WELLINGTON 42.9% 2.33 6
2 10 FANTASTIC SHOW 22.3% 4.49 1
3 3 BEAUTY SMILE 8.5% 11.79 4
4 6 TOYCOON 6.3% 15.85 10
5 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 5.2% 19.29 13
6 7 HELLO BEAUTY 3.9% 25.48 9
7 8 PICKEN 3.3% 29.88 2
8 13 E STAR 2.4% 40.87 12
9 9 SACRED IBIS 1.7% 58.28 5
10 4 HELLO DADDY 1.0% 100.60 3
11 2 HARMONY SPIRIT 0.9% 112.89 7
12 5 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 0.8% 121.72 11
13 14 THE DRIVE 0.4% 235.63 8
14 12 SMART COUSIN 0.3% 350.57 14
WELLINGTONFANTASTIC SHOW — wonBEAUTY SMILETOYCOONHIGH RISE SOLDIERHELLO BEAUTYPICKENE STARSACRED IBISHELLO DADDYHARMONY SPIRITBUNDLE OF DELIGHTTHE DRIVESMART COUSIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 70

PLACE

4 170.5

8 92

10 15.5

QUINELLA

8,10 1,064.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 2,872

4,10 521

8,10 222.5

TIERCE

10,8,4 71,042

TRIO

4,8,10 21,989

FIRST 4

3,4,8,10 21,230

QUARTET

10,8,4,3 577,844

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 37

A1

All pools (2 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/8 2,100

3/10 1,224

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,11,13/2,3,9/Any Combination 312,230