Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LAKESHORE EAGLE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with CHEERFUL LEADER second and EVER LAUGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.42

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly 1.34.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	5	130 lb	9.2	1/2
2	13	CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B/XB J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	4	115 lb	2.5	1/2
3	11	EVER LAUGH B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man	C Y Ho	K L Man	6	117 lb	19.0	1/2
4	14	SUCH A HAPPINESS Closed strongly B K C Leung · A T Millard	K C Leung	A T Millard	7	117 lb	20.0	3/4
5	8	GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B-/CP1 C Schofield · A T Millard	C Schofield	A T Millard	13	120 lb	10.0	1-1/4
6	5	VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT V Borges · T P Yung	V Borges	T P Yung	14	122 lb	92.0	3-1/4
7	9	GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	10	119 lb	42.0	4
8	6	HALL OF CHAMP M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	12	119 lb	6.6	4-3/4
9	4	MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz	A Hamelin	A S Cruz	9	124 lb	12.0	5
10	10	JOYFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	8	120 lb	5.2	5-1/2
11	3	HORSESAIN BOLT B/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte	M Chadwick	D J Whyte	1	124 lb	22.0	5-3/4
12	7	KIRAM M L Yeung · D E Ferraris	M L Yeung	D E Ferraris	3	121 lb	130.0	5-3/4
13	12	COBY BA Led early H/P1 H T Mo · K W Lui	H T Mo	K W Lui	2	113 lb	246.0	10
14	1	DUCKETT'S GROVE P K H Chan · J Size	K H Chan	J Size	11	126 lb	206.0	12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick CHEERFUL LEADER (38.6%) finished 2nd — the winner LAKESHORE EAGLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	13	CHEERFUL LEADER	38.6%	2.59	2	2.5
2	2	LAKESHORE EAGLE	11.4%	8.74	1	9.2
3	8	GIFT OF LIFELINE	10.7%	9.37	5	10.0
4	10	JOYFUL HEART	9.9%	10.14	10	5.2
5	6	HALL OF CHAMP	5.3%	18.82	8	6.6
6	4	MR ALDAN	5.3%	19.00	9	12.0
7	11	EVER LAUGH	5.0%	20.15	3	19.0
8	3	HORSESAIN BOLT	4.5%	22.30	11	22.0
9	14	SUCH A HAPPINESS	2.2%	44.60	4	20.0
10	7	KIRAM	2.2%	44.87	12	130.0
11	5	VOLPINO	1.6%	61.55	6	92.0
12	9	GREAT TREASURE	1.5%	65.47	7	42.0
13	1	DUCKETT'S GROVE	1.1%	89.61	14	206.0
14	12	COBY BA	0.7%	147.31	13	246.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 92.5

PLACE

2 29.5

11 46

13 13

QUINELLA

2,13 114.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 187

2,13 48.5

11,13 78

TIERCE

2,13,11 2,514

TRIO

2,11,13 343

FIRST 4

2,11,13,14 792

QUARTET

2,13,11,14 20,977

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,9,10/2,11,13 37,432

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 49.5

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 1,579.5

10/13 114.5

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