Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 5

Group 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MR STUNNING, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with BIG TIME BABY second and THANKS FOREVER third. The 2.0 favourite AETHERO finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.08.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MR STUNNING CP 1.08.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 7 21.0 3/4
2 9 BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man 9 29.0 3/4
3 2 THANKS FOREVER CP-/B1 B Shinn · J Moore 11 9.3 3/4
4 1 HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size 1 3.0 1-1/2
5 5 WISHFUL THINKER B A Hamelin · R Gibson 4 52.0 1-3/4
6 10 JOLLY BANNER B V Borges · P F Yiu 3 94.0 2-1/4
7 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR C Y Ho · P F Yiu 10 10.0 2-1/4
8 6 D B PIN N Callan · J Size 8 61.0 3
9 4 FULL OF BEAUTY C Schofield · J Size 6 85.0 3-1/4
10 8 BIG PARTY CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 2 28.0 5
11 11 AETHERO Z Purton · J Moore 5 2.0 73-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR STUNNING2. BIG TIME BABY+0.75L3. THANKS FOREVER+0.75L4. HOT KING PRAWN+1.5L5. WISHFUL THINKER+1.75L6. JOLLY BANNER+2.25L7. VOYAGE WARRIOR+2.25L8. D B PIN+3L9. FULL OF BEAUTY+3.25L10. BIG PARTY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AETHERO (31.1%) finished 11th — the winner MR STUNNING was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AETHERO 31.1% 3.21 11
2 1 HOT KING PRAWN 29.1% 3.43 4
3 5 WISHFUL THINKER 7.1% 14.05 5
4 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR 6.9% 14.43 7
5 8 BIG PARTY 6.5% 15.27 10
6 9 BIG TIME BABY 4.1% 24.57 2
7 2 THANKS FOREVER 3.5% 28.98 3
8 4 FULL OF BEAUTY 3.4% 29.05 9
9 3 MR STUNNING 3.4% 29.30 1
10 6 D B PIN 2.6% 38.35 8
11 10 JOLLY BANNER 2.2% 45.85 6
AETHEROHOT KING PRAWNWISHFUL THINKERVOYAGE WARRIORBIG PARTYBIG TIME BABYTHANKS FOREVERFULL OF BEAUTYMR STUNNING — wonD B PINJOLLY BANNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 219

PLACE

2 20

3 36.5

9 55

QUINELLA

3,9 2,471.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 142.5

2,9 177

3,9 490

TIERCE

3,9,2 30,426

TRIO

2,3,9 3,665

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 930

QUARTET

3,9,2,1 38,827

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 64

A2

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE

2/3 1,637

2/9 516

WINNING TRAINER

B4 74.5

B3

B2

B1