Sha Tin · 2020-04-26
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. EXULTANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with FURORE second and EAGLE WAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT 2.00.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 1.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | FURORE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 3 | 25.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE Closed strongly SR/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 7 | 8.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | TIME WARP Led early TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 4 | 7.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | GLORIOUS DRAGON XB C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 2 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | ELUSIVE STATE TT V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 6 | 61.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | TIME WARP | 17.3% | 5.78 | 5 |
| 3 | 7 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 13.4% | 7.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | FURORE | 5.8% | 17.20 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | ELUSIVE STATE | 5.4% | 18.39 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | EAGLE WAY | 3.5% | 28.38 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE | 2.9% | 33.97 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 15.5
PLACE
1 11
3 13
4 44
QUINELLA
1,3 37
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 17.5
1,4 56
3,4 119
TIERCE
1,3,4 419
TRIO
1,3,4 179
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 202
QUARTET
1,3,4,6 1,729
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15.5
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
5/1 261.5
5/3 109