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Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TRUE LEGEND CP1 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 6 21.0 SH
2 0 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 2.4 SH
3 0 SO WE JOY CP/TT C Y Ho · J Moore 9 37.0 3/4
4 0 CASA DE FORCA B C Schofield · A S Cruz 2 8.0 1-1/4
5 0 JUDY'S STAR B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 5 4.3 1-1/4
6 0 HONEST WAY B N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 14.0 2-1/2
7 0 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 11 4.9 5
8 0 STOCK LEGEND B/H A Hamelin · K H Ting 1 23.0 5-1/4
9 0 SPEEDY DRAGON V Borges · D J Hall 14 132.0 5-3/4
10 0 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 36.0 6-1/4
11 0 UNITED WE STAND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 250.0 6-1/2
12 0 JADE THEATRE B K H Chan · K L Man 3 140.0 6-1/2
13 0 BOND A STAR T H So · C H Yip 8 196.0 7-3/4
14 0 COOL ACE H-/B H W Lai · C W Chang 10 448.0 12-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRUE LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with GOOD LUCK FRIEND second and SO WE JOY third. The 2.4 favourite GOOD LUCK FRIEND finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRUE LEGEND—2. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+0.1L3. SO WE JOY+0.75L4. CASA DE FORCA+1.25L5. JUDY'S STAR+1.25L6. HONEST WAY+2.5L7. RHAPSODY+5L8. STOCK LEGEND+5.25L9. SPEEDY DRAGON+5.75L10. VOYAGE STAR+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK FRIEND (22.9%) finished 2nd — the winner TRUE LEGEND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 22.9% 4.36 2
2 0 CASA DE FORCA 20.5% 4.88 4
3 0 RHAPSODY 19.1% 5.24 7
4 0 JUDY'S STAR 9.3% 10.81 5
5 0 TRUE LEGEND 6.7% 14.98 1
6 0 STOCK LEGEND 4.5% 22.33 8
7 0 VOYAGE STAR 3.2% 31.17 10
8 0 HONEST WAY 3.1% 32.53 6
9 0 UNITED WE STAND 2.8% 36.18 11
10 0 SO WE JOY 2.7% 37.26 3
11 0 SPEEDY DRAGON 1.8% 56.25 9
12 0 JADE THEATRE 1.7% 57.67 12
13 0 BOND A STAR 1.2% 83.63 13
14 0 COOL ACE 0.7% 144.92 14
GOOD LUCK FRIENDCASA DE FORCARHAPSODYJUDY'S STARTRUE LEGEND — wonSTOCK LEGENDVOYAGE STARHONEST WAYUNITED WE STANDSO WE JOYSPEEDY DRAGONJADE THEATREBOND A STARCOOL ACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 215

PLACE

1 13

9 89.5

10 50

QUINELLA

1,10 224.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 134

1,10 80

9,10 446

TIERCE

10,1,9 9,785

TRIO

1,9,10 1,130

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 1,460

QUARTET

10,1,9,4 45,840

2ND DOUBLE

13/1 94.5

13/10 2,583

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 52