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Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRUE LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with GOOD LUCK FRIEND second and SO WE JOY third. The 2.4 favourite GOOD LUCK FRIEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TRUE LEGEND CP1 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 6 21.0 SH
2 1 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 2.4 SH
3 9 SO WE JOY CP/TT C Y Ho · J Moore 9 37.0 3/4
4 4 CASA DE FORCA B C Schofield · A S Cruz 2 8.0 1-1/4
5 8 JUDY'S STAR B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 5 4.3 1-1/4
6 2 HONEST WAY B N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 14.0 2-1/2
7 6 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 11 4.9 5
8 11 STOCK LEGEND B/H A Hamelin · K H Ting 1 23.0 5-1/4
9 14 SPEEDY DRAGON V Borges · D J Hall 14 132.0 5-3/4
10 7 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 36.0 6-1/4
11 12 UNITED WE STAND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 250.0 6-1/2
12 3 JADE THEATRE B K H Chan · K L Man 3 140.0 6-1/2
13 5 BOND A STAR T H So · C H Yip 8 196.0 7-3/4
14 13 COOL ACE H-/B H W Lai · C W Chang 10 448.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRUE LEGEND2. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+0.1L3. SO WE JOY+0.75L4. CASA DE FORCA+1.25L5. JUDY'S STAR+1.25L6. HONEST WAY+2.5L7. RHAPSODY+5L8. STOCK LEGEND+5.25L9. SPEEDY DRAGON+5.75L10. VOYAGE STAR+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK FRIEND (22.9%) finished 2nd — the winner TRUE LEGEND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 22.9% 4.36 2
2 4 CASA DE FORCA 20.5% 4.88 4
3 6 RHAPSODY 19.1% 5.24 7
4 8 JUDY'S STAR 9.3% 10.81 5
5 10 TRUE LEGEND 6.7% 14.98 1
6 11 STOCK LEGEND 4.5% 22.33 8
7 7 VOYAGE STAR 3.2% 31.17 10
8 2 HONEST WAY 3.1% 32.53 6
9 12 UNITED WE STAND 2.8% 36.18 11
10 9 SO WE JOY 2.7% 37.26 3
11 14 SPEEDY DRAGON 1.8% 56.25 9
12 3 JADE THEATRE 1.7% 57.67 12
13 5 BOND A STAR 1.2% 83.63 13
14 13 COOL ACE 0.7% 144.92 14
GOOD LUCK FRIENDCASA DE FORCARHAPSODYJUDY'S STARTRUE LEGEND — wonSTOCK LEGENDVOYAGE STARHONEST WAYUNITED WE STANDSO WE JOYSPEEDY DRAGONJADE THEATREBOND A STARCOOL ACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 215

PLACE

1 13

9 89.5

10 50

QUINELLA

1,10 224.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 134

1,10 80

9,10 446

TIERCE

10,1,9 9,785

TRIO

1,9,10 1,130

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 1,460

QUARTET

10,1,9,4 45,840

2ND DOUBLE

13/1 94.5

13/10 2,583

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 52