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Sha Tin · 2020-04-26

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly B 1.21.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 13 4.7 1/2
2 0 SUPER WINNER Led early H-/TT T H So · C H Yip 3 11.0 1/2
3 0 SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT B Shinn · J Moore 5 5.6 3/4
4 0 WINSTON'S LAD Closed strongly B A Hamelin · K W Lui 9 7.2 1-1/2
5 0 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B K Teetan · T P Yung 12 11.0 1-3/4
6 0 CHARGE ON Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall 14 5.2 1-3/4
7 0 BREEZE OF SPRING Closed strongly CP V Borges · L Ho 10 35.0 2-1/4
8 0 TELECOM ROCKET CP M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 9.0 2-1/4
9 0 MY WINNER Closed strongly B M F Poon · R Gibson 4 15.0 3-1/2
10 0 WELL DRAGON TT H W Lai · W Y So 1 352.0 6-1/4
11 0 YICHUN BLITZ B/XB C Schofield · K H Ting 6 11.0 6-3/4
12 0 SWEETLY BABY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 68.0 7-1/4
13 0 HOME WIN B2 K H Chan · C W Chang 7 136.0 7-3/4
14 0 LUCKY WORLD TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 278.0 15

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-26 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHAIRMAN LO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with SUPER WINNER second and SPRINT FORWARD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAIRMAN LO—2. SUPER WINNER+0.5L3. SPRINT FORWARD+0.75L4. WINSTON'S LAD+1.5L5. CITY LEGEND+1.75L6. CHARGE ON+1.75L7. BREEZE OF SPRING+2.25L8. TELECOM ROCKET+2.25L9. MY WINNER+3.5L10. WELL DRAGON+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TELECOM ROCKET (20.0%) finished 8th — the winner CHAIRMAN LO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TELECOM ROCKET 20.0% 4.99 8
2 0 CHAIRMAN LO 14.0% 7.16 1
3 0 SPRINT FORWARD 10.3% 9.70 3
4 0 SUPER WINNER 9.5% 10.47 2
5 0 YICHUN BLITZ 8.9% 11.29 11
6 0 WINSTON'S LAD 7.7% 12.92 4
7 0 CHARGE ON 6.7% 15.02 6
8 0 CITY LEGEND 6.2% 16.17 5
9 0 MY WINNER 5.5% 18.17 9
10 0 BREEZE OF SPRING 5.4% 18.61 7
11 0 SWEETLY BABY 3.8% 26.66 12
12 0 LUCKY WORLD 0.8% 127.63 14
13 0 HOME WIN 0.8% 129.32 13
14 0 WELL DRAGON 0.5% 193.85 10
TELECOM ROCKETCHAIRMAN LO — wonSPRINT FORWARDSUPER WINNERYICHUN BLITZWINSTON'S LADCHARGE ONCITY LEGENDMY WINNERBREEZE OF SPRINGSWEETLY BABYLUCKY WORLDHOME WINWELL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 47.5

PLACE

1 18

4 19

14 35.5

QUINELLA

1,14 330

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 56

1,14 117

4,14 132.5

TIERCE

1,14,4 2,744

TRIO

1,4,14 551

FIRST 4

1,4,12,14 1,039

QUARTET

1,14,4,12 27,430

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 26