沙田 · 2020-05-03
第 9場
2020-05-03沙田第9場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K C Leung策騎、K H Ting訓練的MOMENTUM HAPPY勝出，贏出1/2。CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE獲得亞軍；GOLDEN FOUR獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.4倍大熱門PARTY GENIUS跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MOMENTUM HAPPY 一路領先 CP-/B1 1.21.72 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 9 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 後段發力 H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 2 | 61.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 1 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | PARTY GENIUS XB Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 12 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | SAM'S LOVE 後段發力 TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 44.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | SPICY GRILL 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HARRIER JET 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 5 | 127.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 14 | 5.3 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 11 | 6.4 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | DIAMOND KING B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 3 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | CARE FREE PRINCE B C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 7 | 23.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | DRAGON PRIDE B1/XB1 C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 13 | 65.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 1 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP K H Chan · L Ho | K H Chan | L Ho | 6 | 31.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | PARTY GENIUS | 23.5% | 4.25 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | SPRINT FORWARD | 15.5% | 6.47 | 10 |
| 3 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 14.0% | 7.16 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 8.4% | 11.88 | 14 |
| 5 | 4 | GOLDEN FOUR | 7.8% | 12.78 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 6.3% | 15.89 | 12 |
| 7 | 5 | HARRIER JET | 4.6% | 21.85 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | DIAMOND KING | 3.9% | 25.68 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | SAM'S LOVE | 3.4% | 29.81 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | DRAGON PRIDE | 3.2% | 31.49 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 2.8% | 35.97 | 1 |
| 12 | 11 | SPICY GRILL | 2.6% | 39.11 | 6 |
| 13 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 2.1% | 47.12 | 2 |
| 14 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL | 2.1% | 48.24 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 140
PLACE
4 26.5
12 40.5
13 152
QUINELLA
12,13 5,959.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,12 289.5
4,13 1,052.5
12,13 1,310
TIERCE
12,13,4 79,150
TRIO
4,12,13 13,231
FIRST 4
4,9,12,13 9,800
QUARTET
12,13,4,9 355,125
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 34
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
2/12 2,019.5
2/13 1,081.5