沙田 · 2020-05-03
第 5場
2020-05-03沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M F Poon策騎、D J Hall訓練的QUADRUPLE DOUBLE勝出，贏出1/2。HAPPY ALUMNI獲得亞軍；MIG ENERGY獲得季軍。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT 1.08.70 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 9 | 3.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | MIG ENERGY TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 14 | 7.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | BALTIC WHISPER TT N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 2 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | CRUISING K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 7 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.8 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 8 | 32.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | HELAKU KNIGHT XB-/CP/H K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 3 | 135.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | LUMEN BABA SR1/XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 1 | 38.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | AMAZING KNIGHT E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | CHIKORITA C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 193.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | SINCERE BOY H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 13 | 74.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | PIANILLO XB1 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 4 | 17.0 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 17.8% | 5.63 | 6 |
| 2 | 11 | AMAZING KNIGHT | 17.6% | 5.67 | 11 |
| 3 | 13 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 12.7% | 7.89 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | MIG ENERGY | 10.5% | 9.55 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 8.1% | 12.28 | 1 |
| 6 | 14 | HAPPY TIME | 6.8% | 14.79 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | LUMEN BABA | 5.4% | 18.69 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | BALTIC WHISPER | 4.9% | 20.22 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | PIANILLO | 4.2% | 24.01 | 14 |
| 10 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 3.9% | 25.71 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | CRUISING | 2.9% | 34.29 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | SINCERE BOY | 2.7% | 36.95 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | CHIKORITA | 1.8% | 55.16 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | HELAKU KNIGHT | 0.8% | 131.49 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 37.5
PLACE
2 15.5
8 20.5
13 17.5
QUINELLA
2,13 76
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 48
2,13 35.5
8,13 50
TIERCE
2,13,8 621
TRIO
2,8,13 146
FIRST 4
2,6,8,13 796
QUARTET
2,13,8,6 9,087
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,9/2,8,13 5,069
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
6/2 130
6/13 26