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Sha Tin · 2020-05-03

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with HAPPY ALUMNI second and MIG ENERGY third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 6 3.7 1/2
2 13 HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui 9 3.8 1/2
3 8 MIG ENERGY TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 14 7.5 1-1/2
4 6 BALTIC WHISPER TT N Callan · C S Shum 2 30.0 1-1/2
5 1 CRUISING K H Chan · T P Yung 7 15.0 3-3/4
6 3 BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 5.8 4
7 4 GLORIOUS LOVER H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 32.0 4
8 14 HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 17.0 5-1/4
9 7 HELAKU KNIGHT XB-/CP/H K C Leung · J Moore 3 135.0 6
10 10 LUMEN BABA SR1/XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte 1 38.0 6-3/4
11 11 AMAZING KNIGHT E J Moreira · J Size 11 12.0 7-1/4
12 12 CHIKORITA C Wong · C W Chang 10 193.0 8-1/2
13 5 SINCERE BOY H W Lai · P F Yiu 13 74.0 8-1/2
14 9 PIANILLO XB1 A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 17.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE2. HAPPY ALUMNI+0.5L3. MIG ENERGY+1.5L4. BALTIC WHISPER+1.5L5. CRUISING+3.75L6. BEAUTY LOYAL+4L7. GLORIOUS LOVER+4L8. HAPPY TIME+5.25L9. HELAKU KNIGHT+6L10. LUMEN BABA+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY LOYAL (17.8%) finished 6th — the winner QUADRUPLE DOUBLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY LOYAL 17.8% 5.63 6
2 11 AMAZING KNIGHT 17.6% 5.67 11
3 13 HAPPY ALUMNI 12.7% 7.89 2
4 8 MIG ENERGY 10.5% 9.55 3
5 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 8.1% 12.28 1
6 14 HAPPY TIME 6.8% 14.79 8
7 10 LUMEN BABA 5.4% 18.69 10
8 6 BALTIC WHISPER 4.9% 20.22 4
9 9 PIANILLO 4.2% 24.01 14
10 4 GLORIOUS LOVER 3.9% 25.71 7
11 1 CRUISING 2.9% 34.29 5
12 5 SINCERE BOY 2.7% 36.95 13
13 12 CHIKORITA 1.8% 55.16 12
14 7 HELAKU KNIGHT 0.8% 131.49 9
BEAUTY LOYALAMAZING KNIGHTHAPPY ALUMNIMIG ENERGYQUADRUPLE DOUBLE — wonHAPPY TIMELUMEN BABABALTIC WHISPERPIANILLOGLORIOUS LOVERCRUISINGSINCERE BOYCHIKORITAHELAKU KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 37.5

PLACE

2 15.5

8 20.5

13 17.5

QUINELLA

2,13 76

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 48

2,13 35.5

8,13 50

TIERCE

2,13,8 621

TRIO

2,8,13 146

FIRST 4

2,6,8,13 796

QUARTET

2,13,8,6 9,087

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,9/2,8,13 5,069

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19

A2

4TH DOUBLE

6/2 130

6/13 26