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Sha Tin · 2020-05-03

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LITTLE THUNDER, ridden by C Wong and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with SKYEY SUPREME second and EXCEL DELIGHT third. The 2.9 favourite EXCEL DELIGHT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LITTLE THUNDER B 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Wong · A T Millard 5 8.3 1-1/4
2 6 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 35.0 1-1/4
3 4 EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size 10 2.9 1-3/4
4 7 STRIKING MR C B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 12 6.1 2-1/4
5 8 STAR SUPERIOR H T Mo · C W Chang 7 52.0 3-1/4
6 10 WAYFOONG CHARMER BO V Borges · P O'Sullivan 8 9.9 3-1/2
7 2 GOLDIE FLANKER K Teetan · K L Man 6 8.4 4-3/4
8 9 SPLENDID TIMING B T H So · C H Yip 4 39.0 5-3/4
9 12 SUPREME PATROL B M L Yeung · D E Ferraris 2 32.0 6
10 3 JOYFUL MOMENTS B Z Purton · R Gibson 9 15.0 6-1/2
11 5 M M JOHNNY B C Schofield · Y S Tsui 11 14.0 8-1/4
12 1 DOLLAR REWARD P2/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 3 7.3 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LITTLE THUNDER2. SKYEY SUPREME+1.25L3. EXCEL DELIGHT+1.75L4. STRIKING MR C+2.25L5. STAR SUPERIOR+3.25L6. WAYFOONG CHARMER+3.5L7. GOLDIE FLANKER+4.75L8. SPLENDID TIMING+5.75L9. SUPREME PATROL+6L10. JOYFUL MOMENTS+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EXCEL DELIGHT (35.5%) finished 3rd — the winner LITTLE THUNDER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 EXCEL DELIGHT 35.5% 2.81 3
2 10 WAYFOONG CHARMER 10.9% 9.15 6
3 7 STRIKING MR C 8.2% 12.26 4
4 2 GOLDIE FLANKER 7.9% 12.65 7
5 1 DOLLAR REWARD 7.6% 13.09 12
6 5 M M JOHNNY 5.8% 17.31 11
7 11 LITTLE THUNDER 5.4% 18.61 1
8 6 SKYEY SUPREME 5.1% 19.56 2
9 3 JOYFUL MOMENTS 4.9% 20.54 10
10 12 SUPREME PATROL 4.1% 24.57 9
11 9 SPLENDID TIMING 2.3% 42.56 8
12 8 STAR SUPERIOR 2.3% 43.86 5
EXCEL DELIGHTWAYFOONG CHARMERSTRIKING MR CGOLDIE FLANKERDOLLAR REWARDM M JOHNNYLITTLE THUNDER — wonSKYEY SUPREMEJOYFUL MOMENTSSUPREME PATROLSPLENDID TIMINGSTAR SUPERIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 83

PLACE

4 14

6 84.5

11 23

QUINELLA

6,11 1,591.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 181

4,11 52.5

6,11 426

TIERCE

11,6,4 11,682

TRIO

4,6,11 1,248

FIRST 4

4,6,7,11 2,064

QUARTET

11,6,4,7 73,934

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 21.5

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/6 246

2/11 453