Sha Tin · 2020-05-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-03 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. LIKE THAT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with SMILING FACE second and CHANCHENG PRINCE third. The 1.7 favourite SMILING FACE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LIKE THAT B 0.56.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 2 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | SMILING FACE B/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 4 | 1.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 1 | 4.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER TEN C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.7 | 2 |
| — | 2 | SEA MONARCH K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SMILING FACE | 60.7% | 1.65 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 14.2% | 7.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | LIKE THAT | 13.3% | 7.50 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER TEN | 11.8% | 8.51 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 49
PLACE
3 12
4 18
QUINELLA
3,4 33.5
TIERCE
4,3,1 164
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