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Sha Tin · 2020-05-03

Race 3

Group 3 GOOD 2400m Course B 5 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-03 was Group 3 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. CHEFANO, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by J Moore, won by 2-1/4, with SAVVY NINE second and HELENE CHARISMA third. The winner led throughout. The 2.2 favourite HELENE LEADINGSTAR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.27.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CHEFANO Wire to wire CP 2.27.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · J Moore 4 6.2 2-1/4
2 5 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Moore 1 3.1 2-1/4
3 3 HELENE CHARISMA Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · J Moore 5 8.4 4-1/4
4 2 HELENE LEADINGSTAR XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 2.2 5-1/2
5 1 EAGLE WAY B/TT Z Purton · J Moore 3 5.6 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEFANO2. SAVVY NINE+2.25L3. HELENE CHARISMA+4.25L4. HELENE LEADINGSTAR+5.5L5. EAGLE WAY+16.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SAVVY NINE (34.7%) finished 2nd — the winner CHEFANO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SAVVY NINE 34.7% 2.88 2
2 1 EAGLE WAY 22.5% 4.44 5
3 2 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 22.4% 4.47 4
4 4 CHEFANO 12.5% 8.03 1
5 3 HELENE CHARISMA 7.9% 12.59 3
SAVVY NINEEAGLE WAYHELENE LEADINGSTARCHEFANO — wonHELENE CHARISMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 62

PLACE

4 37.5

5 17

QUINELLA

4,5 81

TIERCE

4,5,3 966

TRIO

3,4,5 174

2ND DOUBLE

1/4 520.5

1/5 31.5