Sha Tin · 2020-05-03

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course B 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-03 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHAMPION SUPREME, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with CHARITY GO second and ENZEMBLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite DEFINING MOMENT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.00.37

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT 2.00.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Moore	V Borges	J Moore	4	125 lb	11.0	1/2
2	1	CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR A Hamelin · C S Shum	A Hamelin	C S Shum	9	127 lb	16.0	1/2
3	6	ENZEMBLE Closed strongly H/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte	C Schofield	D J Whyte	7	123 lb	8.5	2
4	8	DEFINING MOMENT V J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	3	118 lb	3.6	4-3/4
5	9	GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	118 lb	4.1	5-1/2
6	3	GOOD OMEN Led early V M Chadwick · D J Whyte	M Chadwick	D J Whyte	5	125 lb	9.1	6-1/4
7	7	BEAUTY HAPPY B K C Leung · J Moore	K C Leung	J Moore	8	118 lb	34.0	6-3/4
8	4	CLEMENT LEGEND B/TT N Callan · C S Shum	N Callan	C S Shum	2	124 lb	55.0	12-3/4
9	5	LONDON HALL B C Y Ho · D J Hall	C Y Ho	D J Hall	6	124 lb	3.7	15

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick DEFINING MOMENT (37.9%) finished 4th — the winner CHAMPION SUPREME was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	DEFINING MOMENT	37.9%	2.64	4	3.6
2	5	LONDON HALL	14.3%	7.00	9	3.7
3	6	ENZEMBLE	13.5%	7.39	3	8.5
4	9	GOD OF DRAGON	11.8%	8.45	5	4.1
5	2	CHAMPION SUPREME	8.8%	11.42	1	11.0
6	1	CHARITY GO	6.1%	16.43	2	16.0
7	3	GOOD OMEN	3.6%	27.72	6	9.1
8	4	CLEMENT LEGEND	2.1%	48.37	8	55.0
9	7	BEAUTY HAPPY	1.9%	51.49	7	34.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 113.5

PLACE

1 40

2 28

6 23.5

QUINELLA

1,2 620

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 162.5

1,6 133

2,6 125.5

TIERCE

2,1,6 7,980

TRIO

1,2,6 1,408

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 1,015

QUARTET

2,1,6,8 32,386

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,12/1,2,6 93,428

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 23

A1 —

A3 —

7TH DOUBLE

7/1 116.5

7/2 628.5

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