沙田 · 2020-05-09
第 5場
2020-05-09沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的PERFECT TO PLAY勝出，贏出N。NATURAL STORM獲得亞軍；JIMMU獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門MCMUNIGAL跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY 後段發力 TT 1.47.60 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 6.4 | N |
| 2 | 7 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 9 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | JIMMU 後段發力 SR B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 13 | 21.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | MCMUNIGAL B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | BEAUTY ANGEL 後段發力 TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 11 | 75.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | INVALUABLE 後段發力 B K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 6 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 後段發力 TT N Callan · T P Yung | N Callan | T P Yung | 10 | 74.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 13 | HAPPY ICHIBAN T H So · D J Whyte | T H So | D J Whyte | 7 | 95.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE 後段發力 B/XB M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 14 | 152.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | CHEERFUL STAR CP/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 3 | 8.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 12 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND 早段領放 TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.8 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | SHINEALOT B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 12.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR B1 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 8 | 10.0 | 58 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE | 17.4% | 5.76 | 11 |
| 2 | 9 | MCMUNIGAL | 17.2% | 5.83 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | CHEERFUL STAR | 17.0% | 5.88 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 11.0% | 9.13 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 8.2% | 12.21 | 12 |
| 6 | 11 | INVALUABLE | 6.6% | 15.14 | 6 |
| 7 | 14 | SHINEALOT | 6.3% | 15.86 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 | NATURAL STORM | 3.1% | 32.58 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | BEAUTY ANGEL | 2.9% | 34.55 | 5 |
| 10 | 13 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 2.6% | 38.92 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | JIMMU | 2.4% | 41.95 | 3 |
| 12 | 8 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR | 2.1% | 47.43 | 14 |
| 13 | 1 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 2.0% | 50.17 | 7 |
| 14 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE | 1.4% | 70.93 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 64
PLACE
2 56
5 19
7 43
QUINELLA
5,7 494.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 215
2,7 429
5,7 183.5
TIERCE
5,7,2 8,133
TRIO
2,5,7 2,358
FIRST 4
2,5,7,9 1,294
QUARTET
5,7,2,9 31,875
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
4/5 645.5
4/7 218