沙田 · 2020-05-09
第 4場
2020-05-09沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、T P Yung訓練的HUMBLE STEED勝出，贏出N。GOLDEN GENERAL獲得亞軍；HURRICANE HUNTER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門RED BRICK FIGHTER跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HUMBLE STEED 後段發力 1.35.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 3 | 6.5 | N |
| 2 | 10 | GOLDEN GENERAL 後段發力 CP C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 7 | 26.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | HURRICANE HUNTER 後段發力 N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | TREASURE CHEST CP- C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 12 | 7.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 11 | 2.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | THE JOY OF GIVING 後段發力 B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 14 | 110.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 1 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | ROCKAGE B/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 4 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 13 | 6.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P K H Chan · J Size | K H Chan | J Size | 5 | 38.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | GREAT HARVEST 早段領放 B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 9.2 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | DRAGON BOLT H/XB1 C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 10 | 263.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP GOING SR/B2/TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 54.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | BLAZING PARTNERS SR A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 8 | 18.0 | 18-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HUMBLE STEED | 16.6% | 6.01 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | JOY MASTER | 15.3% | 6.54 | 9 |
| 3 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 13.2% | 7.56 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | HURRICANE HUNTER | 10.4% | 9.65 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | GREAT HARVEST | 8.2% | 12.14 | 11 |
| 6 | 10 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 8.2% | 12.22 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 4.5% | 22.35 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | TREASURE CHEST | 4.2% | 23.72 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 4.1% | 24.61 | 14 |
| 10 | 13 | ROCKAGE | 4.0% | 24.87 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS | 3.8% | 26.49 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 2.9% | 34.18 | 6 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP GOING | 2.8% | 35.55 | 13 |
| 14 | 7 | DRAGON BOLT | 1.8% | 56.72 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 65
PLACE
1 38
4 17
10 64
QUINELLA
4,10 764
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 98
1,10 452
4,10 226
TIERCE
4,10,1 11,383
TRIO
1,4,10 2,841
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 6,660
QUARTET
4,10,1,3 139,868
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,12/1,4,10 81,353
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 24.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
12/4 1,670
12/10 421