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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly 1.35.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · T P Yung 3 6.5 N
2 0 GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · K H Ting 7 26.0 N
3 0 HURRICANE HUNTER Closed strongly N Callan · C H Yip 9 14.0 2-1/4
4 0 TREASURE CHEST CP- C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 7.8 2-3/4
5 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER B Z Purton · D J Hall 11 2.8 3-1/4
6 0 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang 14 110.0 3-3/4
7 0 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS B C Wong · R Gibson 1 43.0 4-1/4
8 0 ROCKAGE B/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui 4 14.0 5
9 0 JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 6.6 5-1/2
10 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P K H Chan · J Size 5 38.0 6-1/2
11 0 GREAT HARVEST Led early B M Chadwick · K L Man 6 9.2 7-1/4
12 0 DRAGON BOLT H/XB1 C Schofield · F C Lor 10 263.0 11-3/4
13 0 KEEP GOING SR/B2/TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 54.0 11-3/4
14 0 BLAZING PARTNERS SR A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 8 18.0 18-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HUMBLE STEED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with GOLDEN GENERAL second and HURRICANE HUNTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite RED BRICK FIGHTER finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HUMBLE STEED—2. GOLDEN GENERAL+0.05L3. HURRICANE HUNTER+2.25L4. TREASURE CHEST+2.75L5. RED BRICK FIGHTER+3.25L6. THE JOY OF GIVING+3.75L7. KWAICHUNG BROTHERS+4.25L8. ROCKAGE+5L9. JOY MASTER+5.5L10. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HUMBLE STEED (16.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HUMBLE STEED 16.6% 6.01 1
2 0 JOY MASTER 15.3% 6.54 9
3 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 13.2% 7.56 5
4 0 HURRICANE HUNTER 10.4% 9.65 3
5 0 GREAT HARVEST 8.2% 12.14 11
6 0 GOLDEN GENERAL 8.2% 12.22 2
7 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 4.5% 22.35 10
8 0 TREASURE CHEST 4.2% 23.72 4
9 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 4.1% 24.61 14
10 0 ROCKAGE 4.0% 24.87 8
11 0 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS 3.8% 26.49 7
12 0 THE JOY OF GIVING 2.9% 34.18 6
13 0 KEEP GOING 2.8% 35.55 13
14 0 DRAGON BOLT 1.8% 56.72 12
HUMBLE STEED — wonJOY MASTERRED BRICK FIGHTERHURRICANE HUNTERGREAT HARVESTGOLDEN GENERALMISCHIEVOUS SUNDAETREASURE CHESTBLAZING PARTNERSROCKAGEKWAICHUNG BROTHERSTHE JOY OF GIVINGKEEP GOINGDRAGON BOLT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 65

PLACE

1 38

4 17

10 64

QUINELLA

4,10 764

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 98

1,10 452

4,10 226

TIERCE

4,10,1 11,383

TRIO

1,4,10 2,841

FIRST 4

1,3,4,10 6,660

QUARTET

4,10,1,3 139,868

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,12/1,4,10 81,353

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 24.5

3RD DOUBLE

12/4 1,670

12/10 421