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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 9

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUDDIES, ridden by C L Chau and trained by J Moore, won by 1-1/4, with AMAZING ONE PLUS second and DECRYPT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY LEGACY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.20.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 BUDDIES Closed strongly 1.20.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · J Moore 4 3.9 1-1/4
2 8 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly H1/XB1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 3 201.0 1-1/4
3 4 DECRYPT Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 7.0 1-1/4
4 11 MORETHANLUCKY Led early B K H Chan · F C Lor 7 13.0 2-1/4
5 1 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 5 3.6 2-3/4
6 2 TIME TO CELEBRATE B C Schofield · J Size 2 14.0 3-1/2
7 12 BALLISTIC KING K Teetan · K H Ting 9 6.5 4
8 6 DRAGON GENERAL Closed strongly TT V Borges · Y S Tsui 11 47.0 4
9 5 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 6 16.0 4
10 7 KINGS SHIELD CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 12 85.0 6-1/2
11 3 GOOD STANDING B/XB A Hamelin · J Moore 1 14.0 7-1/4
12 13 TRANSCENDENT TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 13 14.0 11-3/4
13 9 ARROGANT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 96.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUDDIES2. AMAZING ONE PLUS+1.25L3. DECRYPT+1.25L4. MORETHANLUCKY+2.25L5. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.75L6. TIME TO CELEBRATE+3.5L7. BALLISTIC KING+4L8. DRAGON GENERAL+4L9. CALIFORNIA WHIP+4L10. KINGS SHIELD+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DECRYPT (20.8%) finished 3rd — the winner BUDDIES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DECRYPT 20.8% 4.81 3
2 1 BEAUTY LEGACY 18.9% 5.29 5
3 10 BUDDIES 15.3% 6.53 1
4 12 BALLISTIC KING 10.7% 9.36 7
5 13 TRANSCENDENT 6.0% 16.55 12
6 2 TIME TO CELEBRATE 5.3% 18.71 6
7 3 GOOD STANDING 4.2% 23.77 11
8 7 KINGS SHIELD 4.0% 24.72 10
9 11 MORETHANLUCKY 3.5% 28.73 4
10 5 CALIFORNIA WHIP 3.3% 29.99 9
11 6 DRAGON GENERAL 2.8% 36.12 8
12 8 AMAZING ONE PLUS 2.6% 37.77 2
13 9 ARROGANT 2.5% 40.68 13
DECRYPTBEAUTY LEGACYBUDDIES — wonBALLISTIC KINGTRANSCENDENTTIME TO CELEBRATEGOOD STANDINGKINGS SHIELDMORETHANLUCKYCALIFORNIA WHIPDRAGON GENERALAMAZING ONE PLUSARROGANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 39

PLACE

4 21.5

8 351

10 17.5

QUINELLA

8,10 3,731.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 1,158

4,10 51.5

8,10 973.5

TIERCE

10,8,4 28,092

TRIO

4,8,10 5,498

FIRST 4

4,8,10,11 17,292

QUARTET

10,8,4,11 477,768

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 19

A3

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/8 782

5/10 142.5