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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 9

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BUDDIES Closed strongly 1.20.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · J Moore 4 3.9 1-1/4
2 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly H1/XB1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 3 201.0 1-1/4
3 0 DECRYPT Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 7.0 1-1/4
4 0 MORETHANLUCKY Led early B K H Chan · F C Lor 7 13.0 2-1/4
5 0 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 5 3.6 2-3/4
6 0 TIME TO CELEBRATE B C Schofield · J Size 2 14.0 3-1/2
7 0 BALLISTIC KING K Teetan · K H Ting 9 6.5 4
8 0 DRAGON GENERAL Closed strongly TT V Borges · Y S Tsui 11 47.0 4
9 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 6 16.0 4
10 0 KINGS SHIELD CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 12 85.0 6-1/2
11 0 GOOD STANDING B/XB A Hamelin · J Moore 1 14.0 7-1/4
12 0 TRANSCENDENT TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 13 14.0 11-3/4
13 0 ARROGANT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 96.0 13-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUDDIES, ridden by C L Chau and trained by J Moore, won by 1-1/4, with AMAZING ONE PLUS second and DECRYPT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY LEGACY finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUDDIES—2. AMAZING ONE PLUS+1.25L3. DECRYPT+1.25L4. MORETHANLUCKY+2.25L5. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.75L6. TIME TO CELEBRATE+3.5L7. BALLISTIC KING+4L8. DRAGON GENERAL+4L9. CALIFORNIA WHIP+4L10. KINGS SHIELD+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DECRYPT (20.8%) finished 3rd — the winner BUDDIES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DECRYPT 20.8% 4.81 3
2 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 18.9% 5.29 5
3 0 BUDDIES 15.3% 6.53 1
4 0 BALLISTIC KING 10.7% 9.36 7
5 0 TRANSCENDENT 6.0% 16.55 12
6 0 TIME TO CELEBRATE 5.3% 18.71 6
7 0 GOOD STANDING 4.2% 23.77 11
8 0 KINGS SHIELD 4.0% 24.72 10
9 0 MORETHANLUCKY 3.5% 28.73 4
10 0 CALIFORNIA WHIP 3.3% 29.99 9
11 0 DRAGON GENERAL 2.8% 36.12 8
12 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS 2.6% 37.77 2
13 0 ARROGANT 2.5% 40.68 13
DECRYPTBEAUTY LEGACYBUDDIES — wonBALLISTIC KINGTRANSCENDENTTIME TO CELEBRATEGOOD STANDINGKINGS SHIELDMORETHANLUCKYCALIFORNIA WHIPDRAGON GENERALAMAZING ONE PLUSARROGANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 39

PLACE

4 21.5

8 351

10 17.5

QUINELLA

8,10 3,731.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 1,158

4,10 51.5

8,10 973.5

TIERCE

10,8,4 28,092

TRIO

4,8,10 5,498

FIRST 4

4,8,10,11 17,292

QUARTET

10,8,4,11 477,768

3 PICK 1

A1 19

A2 —

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/8 782

5/10 142.5