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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOUCH OF LUCK Closed strongly CP 1.38.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Moore 1 12.0 N
2 0 CLEAR CHOICE B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 8 6.7 N
3 0 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D E Ferraris 7 12.0 1/2
4 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 2 6.9 3
5 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES Closed strongly XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 3 25.0 3-1/2
6 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 5 3.1 3-3/4
7 0 CALIFORNIA ARGENT Led early H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 8.0 3-3/4
7 0 PING HAI TREASURE P J Moreira · J Size 9 4.2 3-3/4
9 0 HANDSOME BO BO SR C Wong · K L Man 6 30.0 13-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TOUCH OF LUCK, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Moore, won by N, with CLEAR CHOICE second and UNITE SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite LONDON LUCKYSTAR finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOUCH OF LUCK—2. CLEAR CHOICE+0.05L3. UNITE SPIRIT+0.5L4. GREAT TREASURE+3L5. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+3.5L6. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+3.75L7. CALIFORNIA ARGENT+3.75L7. PING HAI TREASURE+3.75L9. HANDSOME BO BO+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PING HAI TREASURE (33.5%) finished 7th — the winner TOUCH OF LUCK was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PING HAI TREASURE 33.5% 2.99 7
2 0 CLEAR CHOICE 14.1% 7.07 2
3 0 TOUCH OF LUCK 11.4% 8.78 1
4 0 HANDSOME BO BO 10.1% 9.94 9
5 0 CALIFORNIA ARGENT 9.1% 10.97 7
6 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 8.8% 11.41 6
7 0 GREAT TREASURE 5.2% 19.06 4
8 0 UNITE SPIRIT 4.3% 23.17 3
9 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 3.5% 28.73 5
PING HAI TREASURECLEAR CHOICETOUCH OF LUCK — wonHANDSOME BO BOCALIFORNIA ARGENTLONDON LUCKYSTARGREAT TREASUREUNITE SPIRITGAMEPLAYER TIMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 120

PLACE

4 21

8 33

9 32.5

QUINELLA

4,8 380

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 110

4,9 118

8,9 218

TIERCE

8,4,9 8,548

TRIO

4,8,9 1,301

FIRST 4

4,5,8,9 1,558

QUARTET

8,4,9,5 45,525

1ST DOUBLE

5/4 93

5/8 808

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 42.5