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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HINYUEN SWIFTNESS, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with XPONENTIAL second and SUPER MISSION third. The 2.5 favourite XPONENTIAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 1 7.9 1-3/4
2 1 XPONENTIAL B/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 4 2.5 1-3/4
3 7 SUPER MISSION C Y Ho · P F Yiu 9 9.2 3
4 4 FAST PACE A Hamelin · C Fownes 11 55.0 4-1/2
5 3 BREEZE OF SPRING CP-/V1 T H So · L Ho 6 7.5 5
6 6 SUN OF MAKFI H1/XB1 B Shinn · D J Hall 10 51.0 5-1/2
7 10 SO AWESOME V Borges · Y S Tsui 12 128.0 6
8 12 SHINING ON B- J Moreira · K W Lui 2 5.7 7-1/2
9 8 WIN FOR YOUTH XB- M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 282.0 11-1/4
10 9 ARDENODE TT H W Lai · W Y So 5 30.0 11-1/2
11 11 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE B C Wong · R Gibson 8 26.0 13-1/2
12 2 HARD PROMISE N Callan · T P Yung 7 6.6 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HINYUEN SWIFTNESS2. XPONENTIAL+1.75L3. SUPER MISSION+3L4. FAST PACE+4.5L5. BREEZE OF SPRING+5L6. SUN OF MAKFI+5.5L7. SO AWESOME+6L8. SHINING ON+7.5L9. WIN FOR YOUTH+11.25L10. ARDENODE+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SHINING ON (33.0%) finished 8th — the winner HINYUEN SWIFTNESS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 SHINING ON 33.0% 3.03 8
2 1 XPONENTIAL 22.3% 4.49 2
3 4 FAST PACE 8.4% 11.96 4
4 2 HARD PROMISE 8.3% 12.03 12
5 3 BREEZE OF SPRING 7.6% 13.22 5
6 11 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE 5.4% 18.41 11
7 7 SUPER MISSION 5.3% 19.00 3
8 5 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS 4.0% 25.30 1
9 9 ARDENODE 2.5% 39.66 10
10 6 SUN OF MAKFI 1.3% 77.17 6
11 10 SO AWESOME 1.3% 78.73 7
12 8 WIN FOR YOUTH 0.7% 137.85 9
SHINING ONXPONENTIALFAST PACEHARD PROMISEBREEZE OF SPRINGSUNSHINE UNIVERSESUPER MISSIONHINYUEN SWIFTNESS — wonARDENODESUN OF MAKFISO AWESOMEWIN FOR YOUTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 79.5

PLACE

1 13

5 21.5

7 31

QUINELLA

1,5 99

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 34

1,7 55

5,7 115.5

TIERCE

5,1,7 1,834

TRIO

1,5,7 280

FIRST 4

1,4,5,7 3,494

QUARTET

5,1,7,4 62,844

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 40.5