Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ASSIMILATE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with RIGHT CHOICE second and FARHH ABOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite FARHH ABOVE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.39

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting	A Hamelin	K H Ting	11	128 lb	9.1	HD
2	4	RIGHT CHOICE Closed strongly B Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	12	130 lb	6.5	HD
3	10	FARHH ABOVE Closed strongly XB J Moreira · D J Whyte	J Moreira	D J Whyte	7	127 lb	3.1	3/4
4	8	ALL IN MIND Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	5	127 lb	4.1	1-1/2
5	11	STAR OF YUEN LONG C Schofield · K L Man	C Schofield	K L Man	6	125 lb	27.0	1-1/2
6	1	BEAUTY RUSH V-/E1 M Chadwick · J Size	M Chadwick	J Size	3	131 lb	15.0	1-3/4
7	2	KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly SR B Shinn · C W Chang	B Shinn	C W Chang	14	131 lb	312.0	2-1/4
8	12	WAR ROOM Closed strongly XB K H Chan · D J Hall	K H Chan	D J Hall	13	117 lb	13.0	2-1/2
9	9	CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz	H T Mo	A S Cruz	1	124 lb	37.0	3
10	3	NOBLE STEED Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	8	130 lb	27.0	4-1/4
11	14	SINCERE BOY M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	9	116 lb	244.0	6
12	5	SUPER STAR TT1 V Borges · A T Millard	V Borges	A T Millard	4	130 lb	28.0	6-1/2
13	7	MONICA B/TT K C Leung · J Moore	K C Leung	J Moore	2	128 lb	30.0	6-1/2
14	13	SIMPLE ELEGANT Led early V M L Yeung · P F Yiu	M L Yeung	P F Yiu	10	121 lb	13.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick FARHH ABOVE (35.9%) finished 3rd — the winner ASSIMILATE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	FARHH ABOVE	35.9%	2.78	3	3.1
2	4	RIGHT CHOICE	10.2%	9.82	2	6.5
3	8	ALL IN MIND	9.7%	10.27	4	4.1
4	6	ASSIMILATE	6.6%	15.21	1	9.1
5	12	WAR ROOM	6.4%	15.67	8	13.0
6	1	BEAUTY RUSH	5.7%	17.51	6	15.0
7	13	SIMPLE ELEGANT	5.0%	20.17	14	13.0
8	7	MONICA	4.7%	21.12	13	30.0
9	11	STAR OF YUEN LONG	4.5%	22.45	5	27.0
10	9	CIRCUIT GLORY	3.8%	26.23	9	37.0
11	3	NOBLE STEED	3.1%	31.93	10	27.0
12	5	SUPER STAR	3.0%	33.73	12	28.0
13	14	SINCERE BOY	0.9%	107.15	11	244.0
14	2	KYRUS UNICORN	0.5%	205.84	7	312.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 91

PLACE

4 20.5

6 30.5

10 15.5

QUINELLA

4,6 316.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 108

4,10 46

6,10 69.5

TIERCE

6,4,10 2,587

TRIO

4,6,10 301

FIRST 4

4,6,8,10 217

QUARTET

6,4,10,8 8,199

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 23.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,10/4,6,10 460,353

9TH DOUBLE

10/4 76

10/6 353

SIX UP

5/4/4/5/10/6 89,350

5,7/4,11/2,4/2,5/8,10/4,6 12,218

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

5/10/4 243

5/10/6 1,105

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